Four weeks into a conflict initially projected to last only four days, the war between the US and Iran has incurred significant costs, estimated at $30-40 billion for the US and $300 million daily for Israel, yet Washington finds itself further from a diplomatic resolution with Tehran than it was in May 2025. The war has failed to compel Iran to dismantle its nuclear program as demanded by the US's 15-point proposal, and Washington is now negotiating to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively controlled not by direct attacks but by instilling fear in insurers and tanker owners.

Iran has established a system to charge tolls for passage through the Strait, aiming to generate up to $80 billion annually, akin to Egypt's Suez Canal fees. Tankers from nations considered non-hostile, such as India, Japan, Pakistan, South Korea, and China, may be offered cheaper rates or free passage under proposed Iranian legislation. This strategic move by Iran has created a critical choke point, blocking 95% of traffic and depriving markets of 10-13 million barrels of oil daily, elevating crude oil prices above $100 a barrel and causing stock market instability.

Despite ongoing US and Israeli bombing campaigns, President Trump has twice delayed threatened strikes on Iran’s civilian power stations, an action that would constitute a war crime. Trump maintains that Iran has been defeated, while Iran's actions suggest otherwise. Experts agree that the US underestimated Iran's resilience and has lost the initiative, with Sir Alex Younger, former MI6 head, stating that Iran has played a weak hand effectively by globalizing the conflict through the Strait. Mairav Zonszein of the International Crisis Group considers the conflict one of the biggest strategic failures for the West since World War Two, yielding new problems rather than achieving original goals.

The human cost of Operation Epic Fury has been substantial for the US, with over 300 service members injured and 13 killed. Domestically, the war is jeopardizing Trump's legacy, drawing comparisons to George W. Bush's presidency overshadowed by the Iraq War, and fueling Republican concerns about a potential ground invasion and its electoral consequences. There are also disturbing rumors about Trump's alleged addiction to