The Gulf South and the rest of the Atlantic Basin have been in Hurricane Season for about a month. The historical averages suggest one named storm for June, and it appears as though that is exactly what we will have this year. Unless...

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There is a growing concern that perhaps the next "tropical entity" will be making its presence felt in the southwestern Gulf or Bay of Campeche by as early as Sunday evening.

The National Hurricane Center has designated this area of concern as 91L. That's what it will be known as until it either strengthens into a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane. Based on what the models are suggesting and the official outlook from the Hurricane Center, it doesn't look as if any of those scenarios will come to fruition.

The current thinking is that the system will move over the Bay of Campeche, but by Tuesday, move over land in northeastern Mexico. This should quell any further tropical development, but could still play a major factor in weather conditions along the western and northern Gulf Coast. It depends on how far northward moisture from the system is pulled.

Most of the long-range forecasts are not predicting a deluge of tropical moisture for the July 4th weekend. Temperatures will be seasonably hot, and there will be the seasonal threat of air mass or afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

We will continue to monitor this system and the tropics throughout hurricane season. If you would like that information delivered to your devices, we can make that happen. 

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