. My expectation for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. So far, 0 named storms, 0 hurricane, and 0 majors.

This is a GAME CHANGER in the field of numerical weather prediction. I’m anxious to get the data flowing on a scheduled basis (about 1.1 TB/day) and processed for downstream applications including this newsletter and subscribers.

I’ll be doing “Heat Dome” updates starting tomorrow morning as the tropics are mostly quiet.

Flossie develops out of the ITCZ/monsoon trough in the EPAC just a bit further ESE of where Erick started out.

Monster “heat dome” ridge dominates the Eastern U.S. forcing the tropical moisture plumes through Texas into the Plains and around the top into Canada. Need to watch for mesoscale convective complex systems!

Nothing much besides the diurnal convective cycle. Can’t really pick out an interesting feature in the Atlantic aside from the retrenchment of the subtropical high south of Bermuda.

Ghost town for the next 7-days — pushing into the end of June without a named storm.

Scattered storms over Africa. The tropical wave that came off the continent sputtered out quickly over the Atlantic.

Next plume of Saharan dust holds together nicely through the Bahamas and Florida by 8-days.

Barely a shower or storm … boring.

but no development expected in the Atlantic.

Thank you to readers continuing into this Hurricane Season. My goal is to keep you informed about ongoing extreme weather events inside and outside of the tropics, but also a week (hopefully) heads up on what’s coming. I’ll be using a variety of weather modeling output, some of it may be unfamiliar, but it’s state-of-the-art and industry leading standard.

The ITCZ is suppressed to the coast of South America in 5-days with the leading edge of a powerful SAL which can be traced with the 20°C T850 isotherm. This is a good way to show the warm near-surface layer (about 1-1.5 km up) = very stable.