Nigerian telecom operators, including major players like MTN, Airtel, and Glo, are projected to experience a cumulative revenue loss exceeding N300 billion from airtime and data advance services. This significant financial shift follows the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission’s (FCCPC) approval of new digital lenders, leading to the suspension of the operators' popular XtraTime services. The move is in direct response to the FCCPC’s new regulatory framework, the Digital, Electronic, Online or Non-Traditional Consumer Lending Regulations, 2025 (DEON), which necessitated compliance from mobile network operators.

The suspension of these lending services is expected to impact telcos' earnings, particularly given the substantial contribution of XtraTime to their financial statements. While explicit revenue figures for XtraTime are not always disclosed, they are integrated into broader categories. For instance, Airtel's airtime and data lending services fall under "other revenue." In its financial statement for the nine months ending December 31, 2025, Airtel reported $155 million from this category, with credit advances (XtraTime) typically accounting for a dominant share, estimated between 70% and 80%. This suggests an average revenue contribution of approximately N156 billion ($116 million) from these services.

Similarly, MTN Nigeria incorporates digital lending revenue within its Fintech revenue, specifically under value-added services (VAS). For the financial period of 2025, MTN Nigeria's fintech revenue surged by 79.7% to N191.3 billion. Although core fintech revenue accounted for N10.9 billion, airtime lending and other value-added services were significant drivers. Airtime and data lending alone have consistently contributed around 80% (N144 billion) of MTN's non-core fintech revenue, highlighting their importance before the regulatory changes.

Factoring in the contributions from other mobile network operators such as Glo and T2mobile, the total revenue derived from XtraTime services across the industry is estimated to exceed N300 billion. Despite this projected reduction in short-term transaction volume, the affected telcos have indicated that they do not anticipate a material impact on their overall financial performance, suggesting confidence in adapting to the new regulatory landscape.

In a crucial development, the FCCPC has now officially approved five new firms that have met all the stipulated requirements under the DEON Regulations, 2025, to provide these essential airtime and data advance services. These newly licensed lenders include Total Tim Nigeria Limited, Rane Interactive Medien CLS Limited, Mode NG Applications Limited, Cloud Interactive Associate Limited, and Coverage Broadband Limited.

While the exact timeline for telcos to finalize their compliance with the digital lending rules remains fluid, their involvement in the ecosystem is set to continue. The airtime and data that will be sold by these newly approved lenders will still be sourced from the mobile network operators. The FCCPC has confirmed that the licensed lenders will enter into agreements with MNOs to facilitate these services, which will likely entail mechanisms for sharing returns or incorporating service charges, ensuring a collaborative yet restructured environment for digital lending in the Nigerian telecom sector.