Sudan's Spreading Conflict: UN Alerts to War's Spillover into Central Africa

The United Nations issued a strong warning on Tuesday against any premature withdrawal of its peacekeepers from the Central African Republic (CAR), as the devastating war in neighboring Sudan continues to spill over and destabilize the region. Despite some advancements in disarmament and the completion of electoral cycles, CAR is experiencing a resurgence of deadly violence, particularly in its eastern territories, as highlighted during a recent Security Council meeting.

Valentine Rugwabiza, the top UN official in CAR, underscored the extreme fragility of the current situation. She detailed a significant attack on June 30 by various armed groups on Am-Dafock, a town bordering Sudan. This assault resulted in civilian casualties, deaths among national security forces, the displacement of 17,000 civilians, and injuries to six UN peacekeepers. Rugwabiza emphasized that without the rapid intervention of the UN peacekeeping mission, MINUSCA, similar attacks near the Chad and Sudan borders would have led to far greater fatalities. She also noted that MINUSCA's presence was crucial in restoring state authority after only five days of control by the armed group, whose fighters subsequently retreated into Sudan.

In light of these escalating challenges, Ms. Rugwabiza implored the Security Council to maintain MINUSCA with adequate force levels and capabilities. This appeal comes as the Council prepares to renew MINUSCA's mandate during what she described as a "critical consolidation phase." While the capital Bangui strives to consolidate its authority and continues efforts to disarm rebel groups, violence is proliferating in the east. This instability is partly fueled by the Sudanese conflict, which complicates plans for a gradual drawdown of MINUSCA troops.

The situation in the northeast and southeast of CAR remains particularly alarming, especially around vital mining sites and along traditional corridors used by pastoral farmers, which are frequent sources of community tensions. In the southeast, 26 serious incidents were recorded between June and September, attributed to suspected members of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), a long-established Ugandan armed group. These incidents included reports of rapes, sexual slavery, and the abduction of 68 civilians, approximately 40 of whom were children. Concurrently, the Azandé Ani Kpi Gbé (AAKG) militia continues to pose a significant threat to local populations. Despite these challenges, Ms. Rugwabiza announced the positive development of Monday's release of three hostages, including the sub-prefect of Bambouti, who had been held since December 2023, following several months of mediation with local leaders.

These violent occurrences starkly contrast with certain advances in the peace process. Since July 2023, 1,907 fighters have been disarmed and demobilized. However, their economic reintegration remains a significant hurdle, with some individuals becoming untraceable. Politically, the electoral process is nearing its conclusion; as of October 1, 127 of the 177 municipalities had successfully installed their municipal councils. The remaining polls, postponed due to financial and logistical constraints, are scheduled for October 25. Nevertheless, this institutional progress alone is insufficient to improve the dire living conditions for many Central Africans, with nearly two million people—31 percent of the population—facing acute food insecurity between April and August. Furthermore, at the beginning of October, the UN humanitarian plan was critically underfunded, having received only 46.6 percent of its required resources.

The Security Council now faces a crucial decision regarding MINUSCA's mandate renewal, which must be made before mid-November. The mission, initially deployed in 2014 following the forceful seizure of power by the Séléka coalition and the subsequent spiral of violence, looting, massacres, and sexual violence, has already closed several bases in regions deemed stable enough, transferring responsibilities to national authorities. More than a decade after its deployment, Séléka has been dissolved, two presidential elections have been held, and a 2019 peace agreement integrated 14 armed groups into a political process.

Despite these historical achievements and current efforts, vast areas of CAR remain unstable. The UN peacekeeping mission currently maintains over 12,000 peacekeepers. Initial assessments indicate no major security deterioration in areas where bases were closed, largely due to reliance on long-range patrols and enhanced Central African forces. However, the issue of MINUSCA's future has caused divisions among Security Council members. While the United States advocates for larger troop reductions, other nations caution against a hasty withdrawal. The UN Secretary-General has recommended extending the mandate by one year, crucially preserving the military capabilities necessary for rapid intervention. After more than a decade, CAR has regained some institutional stability and territorial control, but the persistent violence along its borders serves as a stark reminder of how deeply these gains depend on continued international support.