Sudan's Deadly Conflict Intensifies: Ground War Rages for Control

The conflict in Sudan has recently seen a significant intensification of ground fighting across multiple fronts, particularly in the Blue Nile and Kordofan regions. This surge in violence has led to substantial shifts in the map of control, with civilians increasingly caught in the devastating crossfire. Military experts and political analysts suggest that increased firepower from regional actors, coupled with a suspected drive for political legitimacy, are key motivations behind this renewed escalation.

On the military front, both the Sudanese Army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have recorded significant advances. The army has expanded its control in the Kordofan region, notably securing strategic road networks and taking control of four areas in North Kordofan State within a single day in late July. Conversely, the RSF has advanced considerably in the Blue Nile region, seizing the strategic towns of Kurmuk and Geisan, which grants them near-total control of the Sudan-Ethiopia border. The RSF also secured four sites on the Blue Nile front in just two days. Beyond these primary battlegrounds, clashes have also erupted in North Darfur, specifically in the Um Buru area, west of El Fasher, and in West Darfur, along the Bir Saliba corridor, close to the Chadian border.

This recent military escalation underscores a notable evolution in the capabilities of both warring parties. Sources indicate that the RSF, particularly in Blue Nile State, has gained access to drones with more precise targeting capabilities and advanced jamming equipment, facilitating their rapid advances. Simultaneously, there are indications that the Sudanese Army has acquired new weaponry, with fighter jets observed over Khartoum and armored vehicles along with heavy weapons deployed during the army's recent 72nd anniversary celebrations. Military supplies and equipment are also reportedly being delivered via air traffic to areas like Nyala in Darfur, though these claims remain unverified by independent sources.

Political motivations are deeply intertwined with the ongoing military campaigns. According to military expert Diaa El-Din Hussein, external relations continue to ensure a steady flow of weapons to both sides, making an end to the war difficult as neither party is willing to make concessions. Political analyst Ali al-Dali suggests that the RSF aims to secure Darfur from all directions while expanding into Kordofan and Blue Nile states, thereby pushing the war away from Darfur and creating conditions for its 'Tas'is' ('Foundation') government to operate within its controlled territories, indicating that retaking Khartoum is no longer a primary objective. Concurrently, the army's leadership has initiated steps towards facilitating political dialogue in areas under its control. Burhan's announced political process seeks to bring together Sudanese political forces to agree on forming a government and a legislative council, potentially bolstering his de facto authority, restoring international recognition, and granting him extended powers. This initiative, which includes proposals for dropping death penalty charges and granting amnesty to opposition leaders, is seen by some, like Babiker Faisal of the Civil Democratic Alliance ('Somoud'), as a 'cosmetic political process' aimed at legitimizing Burhan's position. Diaa El-Din Hussein further believes that Burhan's military advancements are intended to consolidate his authority, while the RSF's escalations in Kordofan and Blue Nile are an attempt to thwart Burhan's political agenda.

The current developments suggest that both sides remain committed to a military solution rather than a political one, as indicated by the escalation of operations and increasingly hostile rhetoric from their leaders. Misbah Ahmed of the National Umma Party notes that the chances of a humanitarian truce have become more complicated, with prospects for serious negotiations diminishing. Efforts by international and regional initiatives have not yet garnered the necessary response from the warring parties. A diplomatic source, speaking anonymously, revealed a plan, possibly supported by regional actors, to strengthen Burhan's position after weakening the RSF militarily, suggesting a focus on military resolution before direct negotiations.

The human cost of this escalating conflict is immense, particularly in Blue Nile State, where violence in Geisan and Kurmuk has displaced 14,000 people, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). Many displaced individuals are forced to undertake perilous journeys, traversing dangerous roads or crossing the Nile River in wooden boats to reach places like Wad Al-Mahi. Emergency Response Room volunteer Youssef Al-Fah highlighted the vulnerability of these displaced populations, often women, children, and young people, carrying minimal food. Aid distribution is strategically spread across far-flung camps to avoid direct targeting. Land routes offer little safety, with transit corridors like the Abu Zaghouli road near Damazin plagued by extortionate checkpoints and banditry, where travelers have reported being looted at gunpoint and witnessing killings. The dire options leave many with no choice but to return to the ruins of their shelled hometowns, a forced return from 'the hell of hunger and rains to the ruins of homes,' as described by Civil Society Initiative Secretary-General Ali Hajo.