Somalia's Crisis: Almost a Million Displaced by Devastating Floods

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has issued a dire warning, projecting that nearly 874,000 people in Somalia could face displacement due to widespread flooding and other hazards between October and December 2026. This alarming forecast, developed jointly with the Danish Refugee Council (DRC), estimates that 92% of these displacements will be directly attributable to flooding, as heavy rainfall and surging river levels threaten already vulnerable communities across the nation.

Somalia is entering a rainy season characterized by anticipated above-normal rainfall, exacerbated by strengthening El Niño conditions. This convergence of factors raises serious concerns about a looming humanitarian emergency, particularly for populations already grappling with the devastating impacts of prolonged drought, ongoing conflict, and recurrent displacement. Manuel Marques Pereira, IOM Somalia Chief of Mission, underscored the severity of the situation: "We are looking at the possibility of hundreds of thousands of people losing their homes in just a matter of weeks. Many of these families have already been displaced before and have very little left to fall back on."

Pereira emphasized the rapidly closing window for intervention, stating, "There is still time to reduce the impact, but that window is closing. We urgently need funding to help people protect their homes and livelihoods, reach safer ground where necessary, and avoid another cycle of displacement." Early indicators of widespread flooding are already manifesting in various regions. The Jubba River in Dollow is nearing flood levels, while the Shabelle River in Jowhar shows rising water levels approaching its banks. Heavy rainfall in Baidoa has already led to damaged homes and forced families to evacuate several neighborhoods.

Specific areas identified as facing the highest risks of displacement include Beletweyne, with approximately 229,000 people potentially affected, and Gaalkacyo, where an estimated 82,000 individuals are at risk. Overcrowded displacement settlements are particularly susceptible to the impending crisis due to inadequate access to clean water and sanitation facilities, which significantly heightens the risk of disease outbreaks if flooding intensifies.

Despite the escalating threat, IOM's preparedness and emergency response operations for El Niño floods are critically underfunded. The agency has only secured 14.4% of the $16.62 million required to support over 517,000 people in flood-prone areas across Somalia. This severe funding shortfall is severely impeding efforts to establish safe relocation sites, provide essential emergency shelter, and improve access to vital services such as clean water, sanitation, and healthcare.

The humanitarian consequences of extensive flooding extend beyond displacement; agricultural land could be destroyed, crops damaged, drinking water sources contaminated, and access to essential services disrupted, further deteriorating an already fragile humanitarian situation. IOM confirmed its active collaboration with Somali authorities and local communities to bolster early warning systems, identify crucial evacuation routes, and pre-position emergency assistance before the floodwaters intensify. The organization has issued an urgent appeal to international donors to increase funding for both preventive measures and ongoing humanitarian operations, aiming to mitigate the risk of mass displacement and avert a larger catastrophe.