The passing of Raila Odinga, Kenya’s former Prime Minister and one of Africa’s most enduring political icons, marks a seismic turning point in the nation’s history. Affectionately called Baba, Odinga’s towering influence stretched across decades, shaping Kenya’s political identity and defining the democratic struggle for generations. His departure leaves behind an irreplaceable void not just in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), but across the broader national landscape.

For the first time since independence, the Luo nation faces a leadership vacuum. Odinga’s exit, without a designated successor, has set off a quiet yet intense power contest. Beneath the solemn unity displayed during his state funeral, four distinct factions have begun to crystallize each vying to inherit or reinterpret Odinga’s vast political legacy.

The first faction consists of unwavering loyalists who stood by Odinga through triumph and trial. For them, decades of loyalty and sacrifice are credentials for succession. The second faction comprises opportunists who perceive this moment as a gateway to leadership, especially among Kenya’s restless youth eager for transformation. These figures have swiftly positioned themselves as the new face of reform the “next generation” of Luo leadership.

The third faction revolves around those aligned with the Broad-Based Government, the political alliance between Odinga and President William Ruto that integrated ODM into the Kenya Kwanza administration. This group may seek to preserve its influence within government, possibly with Ruto’s tacit support, as ODM’s continued participation could prove pivotal to his 2027 re-election bid.

Finally, the fourth faction consists of political orphans whose careers were built on Odinga’s patronage. Their survival in the post-Raila era depends on whether they can embody even a fraction of his charisma and strategic genius or fade into obscurity.

In this moment of flux, Mama Ida Odinga emerges as a stabilizing figure. Having stood beside her husband through exile, struggle, and triumph, she now holds moral authority as ODM’s matriarch. Her calls for unity could be the bridge that prevents the party from fracturing.

ODM itself now faces its most defining test. Built largely around Odinga’s personal magnetism and his ability to mobilize the masses, the party must now transition from a movement of personality to one of ideology and institution. Whether ODM can survive without its founding pillar will shape Kenya’s political trajectory for years to come.

Nationwide mourning ceremonies from Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University to the streets of Mombasa Road drew immense crowds celebrating Odinga’s legacy. Yet amid the heartfelt tributes, questions of sincerity and justice surfaced. Who will speak honestly about Odinga’s legacy and challenge the sanitized narratives offered by former rivals now cloaked in mourning? The grief was further marred by tragedy when three people were reportedly shot dead by police in Kasarani during the viewing of Odinga’s body, casting a dark shadow over the nation’s farewell.

Further complicating the post-Raila political landscape, President Ruto signed the Computer Misuse and Cybercrimes (Amendment) Act into law just hours after Odinga’s death. While presented as a measure to combat online threats, critics argue it grants excessive state power to silence dissent threatening the freedoms of speech and media that Odinga defended for decades. The timing, symbolic and provocative, underscores Kenya’s fragile balance between power and liberty in the post-Raila era.

As Kenya mourns Baba, the nation stands at a crossroads torn between honoring his legacy and confronting the realities of a shifting political order. The question that lingers is not merely who will lead after Raila Odinga, but who will dare to live by his principles.