Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has positioned himself at the heart of a perceived global "war-opposing network," attributing its power to the US president and its spirit to the Holy Father, following a recent meeting with Pope Leo at the Vatican. As he prepares for a crucial meeting with former US President Donald Trump in Washington, Orban finds himself in an unusual predicament, at odds with his long-time ally on a matter of critical international importance: Hungary's reliance on Russian oil.

The central point of discussion in Washington will be new US pressure on both Hungary and Slovakia to urgently decrease their dependence on Russian oil. This initiative is part of Trump's broader strategy to compel Russia to end its conflict in Ukraine. Orban, however, has openly questioned the extent of US sanctions on Russia's major oil companies, stating that "from a Hungarian point of view, yes," Trump may have gone too far. The Hungarian Prime Minister has historically leveraged his significant reliance on Russian oil and gas to advance his own political agenda, using it as a tool against Brussels, a means to maintain strong ties with Moscow, and a key platform for his re-election campaign in April, promising "cheap Russian energy" to his constituents.

Domestically, Orban is facing a challenging political landscape, trailing in most opinion polls due to the meteoric rise of opposition leader Peter Magyar. He has also expressed frustration over Ukrainian drone attacks on the Druzhba pipeline, which briefly disrupted supplies to Hungary. Amidst these pressures, senior Hungarian officials have hinted at an end to the war in Ukraine by year-end, leading to secret plans for a Budapest summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. These carefully laid plans, however, unraveled on October 21 when the White House announced the summit's cancellation, despite months of preparatory work by Orban's government, with key involvement from his political director Balazs Orban and US Vice-President JD Vance.

Orban hopes to convince Trump to ease pressure on Hungary, at least until the upcoming election, believing that Trump is weary of the Ukraine conflict and desires a swift resolution. The Hungarian leader has consistently opposed Western military and financial support for Ukraine and dismisses any prospect of Ukraine joining NATO or the EU. He portrays Trump as a pro-peace president, a stark contrast to what he perceives as the warmongers within the EU. The proposed summit, where Orban envisioned himself flanked by Trump and Putin on the Carmelite Convent balcony overlooking the Danube, was intended to solidify his image as an internationally successful leader, making it difficult for Hungarians to vote against him. Despite US dismissals, Orban insists the summit is merely a matter of time, a sentiment echoed quietly by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

The strained US-Hungary relations largely stem from oil. By 2024, Hungary had increased its crude oil imports through the Druzhba pipeline from Russia to 80% of its total supply, equating to 5 million tonnes annually, up from 64% in 2020. On October 23, coincidentally as Orban addressed supporters in Budapest, the US announced sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. The Hungarian government defends its stance by arguing that land-based pipelines offer the most economical way to receive oil, and being landlocked, Hungary lacks viable alternatives. Furthermore, Hungarian and Slovak refineries, operated by MOL, are primarily configured to process Russian Urals crude, which has a higher sulphur content than Brent crude available from other sources.

However, Hungary's argument that it cannot diversify its oil supply is significantly weakened by the example of the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic, a landlocked nation with a similar population to Hungary, traditionally relied heavily on Russian crude for its eight million tonnes of oil annually. Following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Czech government invested substantially in upgrading the Transalpine pipeline to the Italian port of Trieste and adapted its Kralupy and Litvínov refineries for Brent crude. By April 2025, the Czech authorities proudly declared their complete independence from Russian oil.

Energy experts suggest that while MOL is making quiet technological adjustments, a political decision from the Hungarian government is the missing piece for a full transition to the Adria pipeline from Croatia's port of Omisalj. Disputes also exist between the Croatian company Janaf and MOL regarding the pipeline's capacity. US Ambassador to NATO, Matt Whitaker, noted Hungary's lack of "active steps" to end its Russian oil dependence, promising US assistance to Hungary and Croatia for the transition. Despite Orban's warnings of potential price hikes, the Czech experience shows no evidence of increased costs for consumers after their shift away from Russian oil, suggesting that Hungary could also diversify without economic penalties.

During their meeting, Trump is expected to strongly urge Orban to demonstrate the political will needed to reduce Hungary's reliance on Russian supplies. This presents a dilemma for Orban, who has spent years asserting Hungary's inability to survive without Russian oil and gas, potentially risking a loss of face if a transition proves feasible. Orban's primary objective for the Washington visit is not only to broker another Trump-Putin summit and seek exemptions from US sanctions on Russian energy but also to secure a visit from Trump to Budapest before the upcoming elections. Such a visit, his advisors believe, would significantly reinforce his image as a statesman and energize his conservative base, particularly given the unprecedented domestic challenge from Peter Magyar.

Analysts, like Zsuzsanna Végh of the German Marshall Fund, view a Trump visit as a "major political favor." Orbán, often dubbed Putin's Trojan horse in the EU, has consistently cultivated ties with Trump, who, along with his circle, has praised Hungary as a "conservative Disneyland." Gergely Gulyás, Orban's chief of staff, emphasized that the meeting offers an "opportunity for the two heads of state to ... determine the roadmap that could lead to a US–Russian meeting and, through that, to a Russian–Ukrainian peace agreement." Observers will be watching the meeting closely as a "litmus test" for the Trump administration's commitment to enforcing sanctions against Russian energy abroad. Regardless of the outcome, Orban's Fidesz party intends to frame the visit as a colossal domestic success, using it to highlight his international influence and divert attention from any domestic governance shortcomings. A private conversation with Trump, in particular, would be a significant political coup for Orban, albeit one that would likely cause concern for Ukraine and its international allies.