OpenAI Readies for Blockbuster IPO, Following Rival Anthropic

OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, has confidentially filed for an initial public offering (IPO), as announced in a recent blog post by the company. This move intensifies the competitive landscape within the artificial intelligence sector, coming shortly after its primary rival, Anthropic, also filed to go public. OpenAI, which was last privately valued at an estimated $852 billion post-money, submitted a draft registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for its proposed IPO.

While OpenAI has yet to release specific details regarding the offering, the company stated that it proactively posted the blog to preempt potential leaks. The firm indicated that it has not yet decided on the timing of the IPO, noting that operating as a private entity might be more advantageous for certain ongoing initiatives. However, the filing provides the flexibility to go public sooner if market conditions or strategic needs dictate. Coinciding with this announcement, OpenAI also published a comprehensive philosophical statement outlining its mission, its vision for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), and its commitment to ensuring AI benefits all of humanity. Such forward-looking communications are typically avoided by companies entering a 'quiet period' before an IPO, suggesting OpenAI's comfort with the current regulatory environment, particularly under the Trump administration's notably hands-off approach to tech and AI companies.

This confidential filing is a significant indicator that 2026 could be a landmark year for public markets, potentially seeing three of the most highly anticipated tech companies — OpenAI, SpaceX (expected at a $1.75 trillion valuation), and Anthropic — going public within months of each other. This concentration of high-stakes offerings would be a phenomenon not witnessed since the dot-com boom.

However, OpenAI's path to IPO is not without its hurdles. The company has reportedly missed its own targets for new users and revenue, according to The Wall Street Journal. Its Chief Financial Officer, Sarah Friar, has voiced concerns about OpenAI's capacity to sustain its enormous data center expenditures. The financial burn rate appears substantial: despite securing $122 billion in the largest Silicon Valley funding round ever (including $3 billion from retail investors), the company projects spending a similar amount on AI research computing power alone in 2028. It also anticipates burning $85 billion that year, even after doubling sales from the previous year. This suggests that OpenAI is asking public market investors to support a business that, by its own forecasts, may not achieve positive cash flow for at least four more years. SpaceX's AI spending offers a comparable insight, highlighting a structural industry challenge where the cost of training large language models can often exceed the revenue they generate, a factor public market investors will need to consider.

In contrast, Anthropic has presented a more optimistic financial outlook to investors, claiming to be nearing its first quarterly profit. Nevertheless, with a recent $65 billion funding round and an additional $36 billion in chip-allocated debt, Anthropic's own burn rate is far from modest. The confidential IPO filing enables OpenAI to commence preparations for a public offering without immediately disclosing sensitive financial information or business risks, hence the lack of details on stock pricing or fundraising targets.

Despite the lack of official details, secondary markets offer a glimpse into investor sentiment. Anthropic recently surged to a $1 trillion valuation on Forge Global, a retail secondary market platform, temporarily surpassing OpenAI, which was valued at around $880 billion in April. David Shapiro, founder and CEO of OpenVC, noted Anthropic's significantly higher year-to-date appreciation rate (123%) compared to OpenAI's (11.3%). However, OpenAI continues to attract strong secondary interest, with Shapiro indicating that its valuation remains enormously successful and recently experienced a slight pop, suggesting investors might view both as 'dual winners' in the broader large language model (LLM) race.

The race to public markets carries real implications. Experts suggest that the first company to debut will likely capture a larger share of increasingly scarce capital for AI firms, much of which might already be absorbed by SpaceX, expected to IPO first among the three. Moreover, Anthropic's filing disclosures will establish a valuation precedent that could constrain OpenAI's pricing strategy. A recent PitchBook report characterized OpenAI as overvalued relative to its fundamentals, implying that a conservative pricing by Anthropic could complicate OpenAI's path to its target valuation.

OpenAI, founded in 2015 as a nonprofit research lab, revolutionized the AI landscape with the release of ChatGPT in 2022, catalyzing significant advancements in large language models across the industry. While expanding its product offerings to enterprise and government clients, the firm maintains a strong reputation for being more consumer-focused than Anthropic. It boasts a substantial user base, with approximately 900 million weekly active users.

The company has also navigated significant internal turmoil, notably the 2022 ousting and swift reinstatement of CEO Sam Altman by the board due to concerns over transparency and commitment to its mission. The board members involved in this event, including co-founder Ilya Sutskever, subsequently departed, leaving unresolved governance questions that prospective public investors will likely scrutinize. More recently, OpenAI has faced several lawsuits, including a claim from the state of Florida accusing the company and Altman of harming children by allegedly providing information to school shooters, offering guidance on self-harm, and fostering addiction among young users. This adds to a growing list of lawsuits against OpenAI and other chatbot makers following incidents of user delusions, self-harm, suicide, and mass casualty events. Last month, a lawsuit by co-founder Elon Musk, alleging a broken promise to maintain the company as a nonprofit, was dismissed as being beyond the statute of limitations. OpenAI has also drawn criticism for donations made by its president, Greg Brockman, and his wife to pro-AI political action committees and a pro-Trump super PAC; the company has distanced itself from these contributions, stating they were personal donations.