US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has claimed that Iran has agreed to negotiate aspects of its nuclear program it previously refused to discuss, signaling a potential breakthrough. This assertion comes even as Tehran announced the suspension of peace talks with Washington and a move to fully close the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, directly linking these actions to Israel's ongoing military operations in Lebanon, which it considers a ceasefire violation.

Appearing before the Senate foreign relations committee for the first time since the Trump administration initiated its war against Iran in February, Rubio reiterated claims that a deal was within reach. He informed senators that for the first time in his memory, Iran had consented to discuss components of its nuclear program it had dismissed negotiating just a month prior. Amidst these developments, Iran's state-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported Tehran's decision to cease exchanging messages with Washington via intermediaries. Donald Trump, however, disputed this, claiming conversations were "going on continuously" and progress could be made soon.

Rubio also offered an update on the status of Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei as supreme leader after the latter's death in the opening US-Israeli strikes. Rubio stated that Mojtaba Khamenei was alive and increasingly involved in the regime's efforts. Regarding Iran's military capabilities, Rubio claimed significant degradation of its missile program, reduced launcher capacity, and an eroded drone-building capability, emphatically declaring, "There is no Iranian navy. It lies at the bottom of the ocean." However, these claims were contested by reports, including one from The New York Times in May, suggesting Iran retained approximately 70% of its pre-war missile stockpile, though damage to its industrial base for replacement was substantial.

Rubio outlined a two-phase framework for a deal. Phase one mandates the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition, not a bargaining chip. This requires Iran to cease charging tolls, assist in removing mines, and commit to not firing on ships. "That’s the predicate that opens the door to phase two," Rubio stated. Phase two would then necessitate Iran committing to disposing of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and negotiating "severe and long-term limitations, and or cancellation of enrichment activity." Crucially, Rubio clarified that any sanctions relief would be condition-based and tied to Iran’s nuclear program, ruling out relief merely for reopening the waterway.

A significant obstacle to any peace deal is Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, whose military operations in Lebanon became a critical sticking point. Netanyahu faces immense pressure ahead of upcoming elections, needing to demonstrate concrete results from his campaigns against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. His threats to bomb southern Beirut led Iran to suspend negotiations with the US until the conflict was frozen, provoking a "stormy" phone call between Trump and Netanyahu. Reports indicate Trump expressed strong frustration, with one official quoting him saying, "What the fuck are you doing?" However, the account of the call's exact nature is disputed, with some suggesting a misunderstanding between the two leaders.

Netanyahu’s political survival is closely linked to his ability to project strength. His popularity has slumped amid prolonged conflicts in Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon, and he also faces a long-delayed trial for fraud and bribery. Ilan Goldenberg, a former special adviser on the Middle East, noted Netanyahu needs a "story of total victory" for his re-election campaign. Meanwhile, Trump’s own political considerations, including concerns over midterm elections and economic data like petrol prices, have influenced his approach. A timely leak of details from his call with Netanyahu suggested a desire by the Trump administration to appear tough on Israel, countering any perception that Netanyahu dictates US policy.

Following their intense discussion, Netanyahu confirmed Israel would not strike Beirut unless provoked by Hezbollah. However, eight people were killed in Israeli drone strikes hours after Trump and Netanyahu reportedly agreed to de-escalate. The economic ramifications of the Strait of Hormuz closure remain critical. Iran's stranglehold on 20% of the global oil trade, intended as leverage, has been met with a US counter-blockade, severely impacting Iran's oil industry and economy. While incentives like unfreezing Tehran’s assets could sweeten a deal, Trump, having criticized Barack Obama for similar actions, remains reluctant. The viability of a peace deal remains precarious, heavily influenced by Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon and the intricate political and economic pressures on all parties involved.