Dangote Refinery has announced a significant price adjustment for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, raising its gantry price from ₦1,175 to ₦1,245 per litre, an increase of ₦70. This revised rate, which took effect from 12:00 a.m. on March 21, 2026, applies to all outstanding and unloaded volumes. Additionally, the refinery increased its coastal supply price from ₦1,512,648 to ₦1,606,518 per metric tonne. The adjustment has been directly attributed to persisting global geopolitical tensions.

Customers holding valid Bank Guarantees are permitted to continue loading under their current arrangements, provided they settle the price difference. All such differential payments must be completed by March 23, 2026. This marks the fourth price increment by Dangote Refinery in March 2026 alone, and since the escalation of the Iran-United States-Israel war, with previous hikes moving prices from ₦774 to ₦875, then ₦995, ₦1,175, and now to the latest ₦1,245 per litre.

The 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery, a major supplier of domestic petrol in Nigeria—accounting for 61% (39.6 million liters per day) of the country’s 64.9 ml/d domestic supply in February 2026—blamed the latest hike on the global geopolitical situation in the Middle East. This situation has caused Brent crude to surge to $112 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude blends to reach $98 per barrel as of Saturday morning. This implies that the majority of Nigerians will now spend more on fuel, with retail pump prices expected to surge by approximately ₦70, potentially ranging between ₦1,331 and ₦1,400 in Abuja from the previous ₦1,261 to ₦1,330 per litre.

Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics, Wumi Iledare, defended the price increase, describing it as an unavoidable consequence of global crude oil dynamics rather than domestic policy failures. He emphasized that fuel prices are intrinsically linked to global crude oil prices, and such adjustments are normal in a deregulated market environment, especially with Brent crude prices climbing above $110 per barrel. Professor Iledare stated that despite Nigeria’s improved local refining capacity and the crude-for-naira initiative, domestic fuel pricing remains influenced by international market realities. He highlighted that commercial refiners must consider the opportunity cost of crude oil, foreign exchange exposure, financing obligations, and future market risks. While local refining reduces import logistics risks, it does not provide immunity from global oil price volatility. He urged Nigerians to adapt to the changing energy landscape through energy efficiency, transport pooling, and a gradual shift towards gas. He also called for greater accountability, policy consistency, transparency, and healthy competition in the downstream sector, asserting that short-term pain could lead to long-term gains with the right policy environment.

Similarly, Professor of Accounting and Finance at Lead City University, Godwin Oyedokun, echoed these sentiments, attributing the latest price hike to global oil market disruptions and rising crude oil prices, particularly due to escalating tensions involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. He warned that for Nigeria, the implications are immediate and severe, as the country remains vulnerable to international oil price movements despite local refining capacity. Professor Oyedokun explained that dollar-denominated crude pricing, exchange rate pressures, and a deregulated downstream sector quickly transmit global energy shocks into domestic inflation, worsening living costs and operational expenses for businesses. He advised against reintroducing blanket fuel subsidies, instead suggesting targeted relief measures for critical sectors like transportation and agriculture. He also recommended fiscal and monetary adjustments, such as reducing taxes on petroleum products, stabilizing the foreign exchange market, and ensuring effective implementation of crude-for-naira arrangements. In the long term, Professor Oyedokun stressed the need for structural reforms, including boosting crude oil production, strengthening domestic refining competition, and investing in alternative energy and mass transit systems. He concluded by urging Nigerians to adjust expectations, demand transparency, and adopt realistic consumption patterns, emphasizing that true energy security lies in reducing structural dependence on global oil price volatility.