The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on February 28 that reportedly killed some 40 Iranian leaders including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has seen Iran assert its resilience through a 'decentralised mosaic defence strategy'. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi claimed these bombings had 'no impact' on the country's ability to continue fighting Israel and the US, a statement he posted on X.

The mosaic defence strategy, with intellectual roots tracing back to the early 2000s after the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, aims to minimise the impact of senior leadership decapitations by establishing meticulous contingency plans and a decentralised command system. Researchers like Francesco Salesio Schiavi note that Iranian strategists learned from the rapid collapse of Saddam Hussein's highly centralised regime in Iraq. Rather than centralising control, Tehran deliberately diffused authority across its territory and institutions, a transformation accelerated under IGC commander Muhammad Ali Jafari from 2007 to 2019. This strategy is designed to withstand attacks on central command structures and to prepare for ground invasions. Defence analyst Federico Borsari explains that Iran's 31 provinces each form a part of this mosaic, with their own commanders capable of autonomous decision-making and flexible interpretation of command and control.

Decades of crippling Western sanctions, imposed due to Iran's nuclear enrichment activities, support for regional proxy groups, and human rights violations, have further intensified Iran's drive for self-sufficiency in defence. This isolation has pushed the country towards decentralised production and storage. According to Borsari, each province possesses its own warehouses, stocks, and even facilities for producing equipment like drones in dispersed workshops. Experts also suggest Iran's strategy aims for a drawn-out war, believing prolonged conflicts become politically difficult for Western nations to sustain, though significant pressure to suspend operations is not yet evident in the US.

US President Donald Trump outlined military objectives to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons and missiles program, annihilate its naval forces, and prevent the 'Axis of Resistance' from harming US forces. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) echoed these goals, citing the removal of 'existential threats' posed by Iran's nuclear and missile programs and the 'Axis of Resistance'. Enabled by its contingency plans, Iran swiftly launched retaliatory attacks against Israel and Gulf states, targeting US bases, oil and gas infrastructure, and airports in the region.

Israel has specifically targeted Iran's nuclear aspirations. The Taleghan compound, a facility near Tehran (Parchin) used for covert military activities and nuclear weapon development, was struck by the Israeli Air Force multiple times, including in October 2024 and recently, to prevent rehabilitation efforts. Satellite images revealed three enormous holes in the concrete shell protecting the site, suggesting the use of powerful bunker buster bombs like the US's 30,000lb GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs), with similar damage noted at Iran's Fordow and Natanz nuclear sites.

Beyond nuclear sites, Israel launched an 'extensive' wave of airstrikes on various regime targets in Tehran. These included command centers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) air force, a compound at Imam Hossein University (the IRGC’s military academy), other weapon storage sites, Iran’s internal security forces, the Basij paramilitary force, and a headquarters of Iran’s intelligence ministry. Iran reported 'several members of the security force and the Basij force' were killed. In retaliation, Iran has sent missiles and drones at US allies in the Middle East and controversially forced shut the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for 20% of the world's oil, sparking fears of a global economic crisis. The conflict also drew in Lebanon, with the militant group Hezbollah supporting the Iranian regime. Israel intensified its attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and Beirut, while Hezbollah responded with 200 rockets and multiple drones on northern Israel.

Despite Araghchi's claims of 'no impact', Euronews' fact-checking team, The Cube, found evidence suggesting otherwise. US officials reported on March 5 that Iran's ballistic missile launches had dropped by 86% compared to the initial days of the conflict, indicating a rapid decline in its ability to produce and store missiles. Schiavi highlighted that US and Israeli forces focused on destroying mobile launchers, with approximately 60% of Iran's launchers destroyed by March 6. While Pentagon officials cautioned that Iran might retain up to half of its missiles and launchers, the operability of launch platforms and protected storage facilities after weeks of sustained strikes remains crucial. The full scale of impact on Iran's subterranean 'Missile Cities' is yet to be determined, though drone stocks remain a key asset for exerting pressure, as seen in attacks on Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar.

The human toll of the strikes has been significant. Iran's ambassador to the UN reported over 1,341 civilian deaths and 17,000 wounded in US-Israeli strikes, with 18 attacks on healthcare verified by the WHO and damage to ambulances and medical centers. Israeli military assessments from March 5 indicated over 3,000 Iranian soldiers and operatives killed. The UN refugee agency estimated up to 3.2 million people in Iran have been displaced, primarily fleeing major cities to the north or rural areas.

Experts like Schiavi view Iran's public statements regarding its mosaic defence as strategic messaging. Domestically, it aims to reassure the population that the state can survive severe military shocks. Internationally, it serves as a warning to adversaries that major strikes, including leadership killings, will not necessarily lead to a rapid collapse of Iran's war effort, a claim that, for now, appears to hold some weight despite the evident impacts.