Madagascar is currently embroiled in a profound political crisis, marked by weeks of nationwide protests and an alleged assassination attempt on President Andry Rajoelina. The embattled leader, 51, stated in a live Facebook broadcast that he was sheltering in a "safe place" after a plot by "a group of military personnel and politicians planned to assassinate me." While Rajoelina did not disclose his location, unconfirmed reports had earlier suggested he fled the country on a French military aircraft. Contradicting this, the head of the opposition in parliament, Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko, along with other officials, explicitly claimed that President Rajoelina had indeed left Madagascar on Sunday, following defections within army units to join the growing protests.

The unrest stems from a fortnight of demonstrations, primarily spearheaded by young activists dubbed "Gen Z Mada," demanding Rajoelina's resignation. Initial grievances over repeated water and power cuts quickly escalated to encompass broader dissatisfaction with the government concerning high unemployment, rampant corruption, and a severe cost-of-living crisis. Despite Rajoelina's attempts to placate protesters by sacking his entire government and offering other concessions, these efforts proved futile. The severity of the situation is underscored by UN reports of at least 22 fatalities and over 100 injuries in the initial days of the protests, figures the government disputes. Eyewitness accounts describe security officers using live ammunition on demonstrators, and a tragic incident involved a newborn baby dying from smoke inhalation after exposure to tear gas.

The military has become a pivotal player in the unfolding drama. CAPSAT, a powerful army unit instrumental in Rajoelina's ascent to power in 2009, moved to undermine him by declaring itself in command of all armed forces. Critically, some of its officers openly joined protesters in the capital, Antananarivo. This shift in loyalty was further solidified when CAPSAT installed a new Chief of Army Staff, Gen Demosthene Pikulas, who subsequently assured the public of the security forces' unified effort to maintain order. Amidst the chaos, soldiers reportedly threatened to seize state TV headquarters, and Rajoelina's address to the nation was repeatedly delayed. A senior leader from Madagascar's largest opposition party, TIM, speaking anonymously, indicated that the army unit is now effectively governing the island nation. The TIM party has also announced plans to initiate impeachment proceedings against Rajoelina for "abandonment of post."

The profound instability has led to several members of Rajoelina's inner circle fleeing to nearby Mauritius, including former Prime Minister and President Richard Ravalomanana and businessman Maminiaina Ravatomanga. Rajoelina's plea for adherence to the constitution highlights the constitutional crisis facing the country. The current turmoil is not unprecedented for Madagascar, which has experienced multiple uprisings since gaining independence in 1960, including the 2009 protests that saw Rajoelina, then aged 34, become Africa's youngest leader after forcing then-President Marc Ravalomanana to step down. He returned to power in 2018, but his initial appeal, built on his background as an entrepreneur and DJ, has since waned under allegations of cronyism and entrenched corruption.

Despite possessing abundant natural resources, Madagascar remains one of the world's poorest nations, with the World Bank estimating that approximately 75% of its population lives below the poverty line. Data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) further reveals that just over one-third of the populace has access to electricity, underscoring the deep-seated socio-economic disparities that fuel widespread public discontent.