Russia has announced the deployment of its latest nuclear-capable missile system, the Oreshnik, in Belarus. This development comes a day after Moscow claimed that Ukraine had launched a large-scale drone attack targeting Vladimir Putin’s residence. Footage released by Russia’s ministry of defence showcased the new Oreshnik missile system in a snowy forest, alongside soldiers disguising combat vehicles and raising a flag at an airbase in eastern Belarus, close to the Russian border. This move is widely interpreted as a deliberate attempt to intimidate Europe and mentally prepare Russians for an potential escalation of the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. The deployment in Belarus, if confirmed, would significantly reduce the flight time for a Russian missile to reach a European Union capital. Belarus’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, stated that ten Oreshnik systems would be stationed in his country, a decision that Putin reiterated during a meeting with his generals, where he also reaffirmed intentions to capture more Ukrainian territory, including Zaporizhzhia.

Earlier, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, issued a warning of “reprisals” against Kyiv, asserting that targets were already prepared. These threats followed Russia’s allegations of a Ukrainian drone attack on Sunday night, reportedly involving 91 drones, targeting the Russian president’s palace in the Novgorod region. However, the Kremlin has failed to provide any evidence to support these claims. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, stated that no proof would be offered, as all missiles were allegedly shot down, but he could not comment on the absence of debris. Local residents in the area, according to the independent Russian media outlet Sota, reported no sounds of explosions or anti-aircraft fire, nor were any typical online videos of smoke or flames shared, which usually accompany confirmed hits.

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, vehemently denied Russia’s claims on Tuesday, urging other nations to disregard them. He posted on X, “Almost a day passed, and Russia still hasn’t provided any plausible evidence to its accusations. And they won’t. Because there’s none. No such attack happened.” Sybiha also expressed frustration with India, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates for their stated concerns over Russia’s reports, remarking that “Such reactions to Russia’s baseless manipulative claims only play into Russian propaganda and encourage Moscow for more atrocities and lies.”

Meanwhile, Ukrainian commanders shared that Russian kamikaze drones frequently fly over a government palace used by President Zelenskyy en route to the capital. One officer, head of territorial defence unit 112, recounted shooting down two drones on Saturday above the state residence in Koncha-Zaspa, south of Kyiv, noting that “Whenever there are large-scale attacks, they fly in our area. There are always shaheeds. Quite often we shoot them down in this place.” The officer provided a video depicting an enemy drone against a winter sky, highlighting the persistent aerial threats.

Ukraine is keen to maintain focus on diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, following President Zelenskyy’s recent two-hour meeting with Donald Trump in Florida. During this meeting, the two leaders discussed a 20-point peace plan that would involve the U.S. offering post-war security guarantees to Kyiv, subject to Congressional approval. Despite these discussions, no progress was made regarding the future of the eastern Donbas region, which Putin demands be ceded to Russia—a proposition Zelenskyy has explicitly rejected. Zelenskyy has instead proposed a demilitarized zone, potentially confirmed by a referendum, contingent on a Russian ceasefire of at least 60 days. Zelenskyy believes Russia is spreading “fake news” due to his “fairly successful conversation and meeting” with Trump and recent progress by U.S. and Ukrainian delegations, suggesting Russia aims to prevent any positive outcomes from such diplomatic engagements.

Looking ahead, Ukraine’s president is scheduled to meet with European allies on January 6 in France, at a conference hosted by Emmanuel Macron, to discuss Europe’s contribution to a peacekeeping operation. A subsequent meeting between European heads of state with Trump and his White House team in Washington is also anticipated. Commentators like Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies, have voiced concerns that U.S. security pledges could be compromised if Trump is overly accepting of Russian narratives. He stated, “If the potential ceasefire monitoring will be done by the same people who now believe what Russia is saying – we are in big trouble.”