Investment Battle Royale: Netflix vs. Paramount - Who Wins?

Published 4 days ago3 minute read
David Isong
David Isong
Investment Battle Royale: Netflix vs. Paramount - Who Wins?

A high-stakes acquisition battle is unfolding for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), with global media giants Netflix and Paramount Skydance intensely competing to win over WBD shareholders. The final decision rests with WBD's investors, who are expected to vote on the proposed transactions by April 2026. Both companies have adjusted their original bids in efforts to sway the shareholders' decision, presenting distinct financial and strategic proposals.

Netflix, in a significant development on January 20, 2026, revised its original $82.7 billion acquisition offer from a combination of cash and equity shares to an all-cash deal. This change, filed with the SEC, aims to simplify the transaction structure and provide greater certainty for WBD stockholders, while also expediting the path to a shareholder vote.

Despite this revision, Netflix's offer maintains a valuation of $27.75 per share, unchanged from its prior structure. The deal, led by co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters, proposes an enterprise value of $82.7 billion and an equity value of $72 billion. Netflix's bid, as of September 10, offers approximately a 121.3% premium to Warner Bros. shareholders. Funding for Netflix’s offer would be secured through a debt funding route of up to $59 billion from Wells Fargo, BNP Paribas, and HSBC Bank, complemented by cash on hand and equity.

WBD shareholders are projected to save $2-3 billion annually with Netflix's proposal. The closing of this offer is anticipated within 12 to 18 months, and in the event of a breakup, Netflix would pay $5.8 billion, while Warner Bros. would owe $2.8 billion. Netflix’s targeted assets include Warner Bros.' film and television studios, video game intellectual property and developers, the HBO network and its content library, and the HBO Max streaming service.

Paramount Skydance has countered with a more aggressive, all-cash hostile takeover bid valued at $108 billion. This offer provides WBD shareholders with $30 apiece through an all-cash tender offer and is designed to acquire all outstanding shares. Led by CEO David Ellison, Paramount Skydance's bid features a higher enterprise value of $108.4 billion and an equity value of $74.35 billion, translating to approximately a 139% share premium as of September 10. A crucial component of Paramount’s funding strategy is the personal commitment of $40.4 billion in equity financing from Larry Ellison, Oracle's founder and David Ellison's father.

Additional funding would come from equity capital from RedBird and $54 billion in debt financing from Bank of America, Citi, and Apollo, with Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, Abu Dhabi-based L’imad Holding Company PJSC, and Qatar Investment Authority also contributing as financing partners. Paramount's bid projects over $6 billion in cost synergies for the combined business and is expected to close in more than 12 months.

Should the deal fall through, Paramount would be responsible for a $5.8 billion breakup fee. Paramount's offer encompasses a broader scope, aiming for all of Warner Bros. Discovery, including its film, television, streaming, gaming, and cable television networks, specifically mentioning HBO and CNN.

A comparison of the two bids reveals several key differences. Netflix boasts a significantly larger streaming subscriber base of over 300 million, compared to Paramount’s 79.1 million. While Netflix promises annual savings for WBD shareholders, Paramount emphasizes substantial cost synergies. Netflix CEO Greg Peters has expressed skepticism regarding Paramount's ability to secure the necessary funding for its acquisition round without Larry Ellison's substantial independent financial support.

With the Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders meeting looming, all eyes are on the final decision that will shape the future landscape of the global media industry.

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