Hormuz Under Siege: EU Eyes Fuel Reserves as US Covert Oil Missions Exposed

Amidst prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, global energy markets have been grappling with uncertainty, intensified by claims made by Donald Trump. Trump asserted that the US had been conducting a “secret mission” to assist Gulf petrostates in bypassing Iran’s control over oil flows, which he claimed involved dozens of tankers being escorted out of the blockaded channel at night with their transmitters off. He later escalated this claim on Truth Social, stating that 200 vessels had transported over 100 million barrels of oil to global buyers.

The reality of these operations, however, appears to be more nuanced. While Trump's Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, initially stated he was unaware of such a large-scale operation, he did acknowledge US military assistance in moving some oil. Multiple news outlets have reported on a rising number of tankers engaging in “shadow transits” by switching off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transmitters to avoid detection. Lloyd’s List, a leading maritime intelligence provider, confirmed that the US has been facilitating some of these transits through “overwatch operations,” utilizing autonomous vehicles, aircraft, and drones to escort vessels through the southern part of the strait, near Oman’s coast and away from Iranian territory.

The logistics of these shadow transits involve tankers exiting the Gulf with their AIS off, performing ship-to-ship transfers to other waiting tankers in the Gulf of Oman, and then returning empty through the strait to reload oil and gas from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Iraq. These operations primarily occur under the cover of darkness. Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, detailed this process, highlighting the continuous movement of tankers with AIS off to ferry new loads.

Despite these efforts, the number of oil and gas tankers transiting the strait is significantly below pre-crisis levels. Before the crisis, an average of 138 ships transited daily, a figure that plummeted to an estimated 138 vessels for the entire month of March, according to Lloyd’s List intelligence. As of recent reports, only about 25% of the tankers present in the Gulf at the start of the crisis have managed to leave the region. The exact volume of oil and gas exiting is difficult to ascertain due to the practice of turning AIS off, which obscures tanker movements. Satellite imagery, however, has captured these “dark tankers” loading at Gulf ports before undertaking shadow transits and ship-to-ship transfers. Between June 1 and 7, Lloyd’s List analysts recorded 36 transits, with 17 being “dark” and 19 traceable, though they caution that delays in re-activating transmitters make precise counts challenging.

Regarding the amount of oil reaching the market, Trump’s 100 million barrel figure cannot be fully verified, but market analysts at Kpler suggest it could be broadly consistent with observed crude flows from Gulf producers (excluding Iran). However, this volume would only equate to five days of normal pre-crisis flow. Nevertheless, market observers believe that clandestine flows via dark transits and shuttle tankers have increased, potentially moving an average of 1.9 million barrels of oil per day through the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman since April. Estimates from JP Morgan and Piper Sandler suggest highs of 2.1 million and even 2.9 million barrels per day, respectively, though these figures still represent only a fraction of the 15.6 million barrels that flowed daily before the conflict.

These clandestine shipments, combined with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates rerouting 4.5 million barrels per day via pipelines and China drawing on its record-high stockpiles, have contributed to a recent tumble in Brent crude prices from over $110 to around $93 a barrel. Despite this, experts like Jan Stuart of Piper Sandler warn that prices are expected to rebound, potentially averaging $130 a barrel in July and August, as global oil inventories continue to fall and summer driving season demand rises.

The prolonged disruption in the Middle East has also significantly impacted European energy security, particularly regarding jet fuel supply, just as the summer travel season commences. A European Council briefing revealed that while crude oil and natural gas markets have avoided major physical shortages, aviation fuel remains the most exposed product. EU energy ministers are now considering a coordinated release of strategic fuel reserves, including jet fuel stocks, to address potential commercial shortfalls later in the year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) previously coordinated a 400 million barrel oil release, with European contributions specifically prioritizing refined products like jet fuel due to regional shortages.

Jet fuel prices surged more sharply than crude during the disruption, with some regional markets seeing values roughly double. In response, European refineries, primarily in Germany, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands, have significantly increased jet fuel production. Growing imports from the US and Nigeria are also helping to bolster supplies. However, energy analyst George Shaw from Kpler warns that supply will be