EU foreign ministers are convening in Brussels amidst escalating global tensions, primarily centered on US President Donald Trump's demand for allies to bolster the EU's Aspides naval mission and deploy warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has warned that a failure by European allies to support this initiative would be detrimental to the future of NATO, linking the situation to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime artery, has been under a de facto blockade by Iran since the start of the Iran war, leading to a severe global energy supply shock, spiraling prices, and economic volatility. Approximately a fifth of global oil supplies typically pass through this channel.

Despite Trump's insistence that countries benefiting from the Strait should contribute to its security, his calls have met with widespread reluctance from key allies. The UK, under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has signaled it will not deploy warships, instead considering contributions like mine-hunting drones or autonomous underwater vehicles. France, Germany, Italy, Greece, Canada, Australia, and Japan have also dismissed the prospect of sending naval vessels. Many European nations emphasize a preference for diplomacy and avoiding further escalation in the Middle East conflict, especially given NATO's defensive mandate. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul expressed skepticism, stating his country's desire to avoid an "active part" in the conflict.

The EU's existing Aspides mission, launched in 2024 to protect commercial vessels in the Red Sea from Houthi attacks, is being considered for bolstered capacities. However, EU ministers are unlikely to deploy it to Hormuz while the war in the Middle East rages on, aiming to prevent being drawn deeper into the conflict. French President Emmanuel Macron indicated a willingness to deploy a "fully defensive" naval mission to the Strait only after the conflict's most intense phase subsides, pledging additional French vessels to the Aspides mission. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has urged EU countries with naval capabilities to contribute more ships.

Iran, for its part, has mocked Trump's appeals for international help, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stating the Strait is open to everyone except the US and its allies. Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed to continue using the "lever of blocking the Strait of Hormuz," asserting its vulnerability for the enemy. Iranian officials maintain that the passageway is under "special conditions" and only closed to those involved in military aggression against Iran. The conflict has seen continued Iranian bombardments in the Gulf, including drone and missile attacks in the UAE, disrupting travel and causing fires.

The repercussions of the Iran war extend beyond the Middle East, significantly impacting the war in Ukraine and broader European security. The EU's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, highlighted the potential for a global "food deprivation" due to knock-on effects on fertilizer availability. She also warned against allowing attention on Ukraine to "fizzle out" amidst the Middle East escalation. A contentious US decision to temporarily waive sanctions on Russian energy, allowing countries like India to purchase stranded Russian oil, has drawn strong criticism from European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who deemed it a "dangerous precedent."

Compounding these geopolitical challenges is an ongoing dispute over the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies cheap Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has described pressure to reopen the pipeline, out of operation since late January, as "blackmail." Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is leveraging this issue, vetoing a €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine until the pipeline is operational, further increasing stakes amidst the global energy crisis. Orbán has made this a central point in his electoral campaign, and many in Brussels anticipate his veto to persist until after the Hungarian elections on April 12.

Adding to the shifting European stance, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever has called for direct European talks with Russia to end the Ukraine war and restore access to cheap energy. He claimed that many European leaders privately agree but are hesitant to voice this publicly. While some leaders like French President Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni have previously led calls for direct talks with Putin, other EU members, particularly Poland and the Baltic states, maintain a more cautious approach. The Iran war has, for now, frozen trilateral talks between the US, Ukraine, and Russia, which had been taking place in the United Arab Emirates.