Ghana has achieved a significant victory against cocoa smuggling this season, virtually eliminating the illicit trade that plagued its borders in previous years. This success is primarily attributed to the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD)'s strategy of maintaining domestic cocoa prices closer to international rates, a stark contrast to the substantial price disparities that fueled widespread smuggling last season.

Dr. Randy Abbey, the Chief Executive of COCOBOD, disclosed this development during an appearance on Joy FM's Newsfile programme. He elaborated that communities situated along border regions often engage in trade across two markets, naturally gravitating towards whichever offers more advantageous prices. This inherent economic behaviour makes price differentials the predominant catalyst for smuggling activities. Dr. Abbey cited research indicating that a price gap exceeding $400 per tonne dramatically escalates the incidence of smuggling. To mitigate this risk, COCOBOD rigorously monitors the pricing structures between Ghana and its neighbour, Côte d'Ivoire.

The severity of the smuggling crisis during the 2023/24 season was profound. Dr. Abbey recounted a period where Ghana was compensating its cocoa farmers at $3,100 per tonne, while spot prices in adjacent countries soared to between $6,000 and $7,000. This staggering difference, often exceeding $3,000, created such powerful incentives that smuggling incidents occurred daily. Smugglers, emboldened by the profit margins, would directly approach Ghanaian farms, offering farmers between $4,000 and $5,000 per tonne for their cocoa beans. This practice effectively removed the need for farmers to undertake the risks associated with transporting the illicit goods themselves.

The scale of the illegal trade reached alarming levels, with smugglers employing a diverse range of vehicles, including four-wheel drives and even hospital ambulances, to transport cocoa beans across national borders. The situation escalated to a point where national security intervention became necessary, prompting regular high-level meetings to devise strategies and address the escalating crisis.

However, the current season has witnessed a dramatic shift in these dynamics. While Ghana's domestic cocoa prices remain lower than international spot rates, the existing gap, now ranging from $1,000 to $2,000, paradoxically works in Ghana's favour by effectively nullifying the incentives for smuggling cocoa out of the country. Dr. Abbey further clarified that despite this price differential theoretically creating an environment conducive to "reverse smuggling"—where cocoa beans might be brought into Ghana from neighbouring nations—this phenomenon has not materialized. The primary reason for this is the significant liquidity challenges currently faced by Ghana's cocoa sector, particularly COCOBOD's cash flow constraints, which have resulted in some domestically produced beans remaining unpurchased. As Dr. Abbey succinctly put it, "Even those who intend to smuggle know that Ghana is not buying," underscoring the disincentive for bringing cocoa into a market with limited purchasing power.