EU on Edge: Lukashenka Intensifies Pressure, Latvia Becomes Latest Flashpoint

Latvia has recently emerged as the primary focus of a "hybrid warfare" campaign orchestrated by Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka, employing migration as a political instrument against the European Union's eastern border. This development marks a significant shift in pressure, which previously affected Lithuania and Poland more heavily. Latvian authorities report a substantial increase in irregular crossings from Belarus, a situation that has intensified just months before Latvia's parliamentary elections on 3 October, fueling concerns about deliberate destabilization efforts by Minsk.

The scale of this shift is starkly illustrated by recent border statistics. On a single day, Latvia, with its 173-kilometre border with Belarus, recorded 111 attempted illegal crossings. In contrast, Lithuania, sharing a much longer 679-kilometre border, reported only two attempted crossings on the same day, while Poland noted none the previous day. Additionally, secondary migration to Lithuania through Latvia has quadrupled, underscoring the redirected pressure. Latvian Interior Minister Jānis Dombrava explicitly stated to Euronews, "Today Latvia's border has become the main target."

Officials in Riga contend that the timing of this surge is not coincidental. A spokesperson for Latvia's Interior Ministry highlighted that "Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine, openly supported by the Belarusian regime, has significantly increased security risks in the region and provides additional motivation for Belarus to continue hybrid activities, including the instrumentalisation of migration." The ministry asserts that Minsk is deliberately facilitating these migration flows towards the EU's external borders to deplete national resources and exert pressure on neighboring countries, echoing the crisis that first erupted in 2021 when Lukashenka threatened to overwhelm his neighbors with migrants.

In response to the 2021 crisis, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland implemented measures such as constructing border barriers, expanding surveillance, and increasing patrols. However, Latvian officials now acknowledge that these existing measures are proving insufficient against the current intensity of migration pressure. "The State Border Guard is doing everything possible," Dombrava admitted, "however, given the intensity of the migration pressure, the resources currently available are not always sufficient to intercept every group of illegal migrants in time." This intensified pressure has prompted Latvia to seek assistance from its neighbors.

Neighboring EU and NATO member states have responded by deploying support. Lithuania has sent a team of nine border guards and two service dogs to bolster patrols along the Belarusian border, replacing a previous contingent. Estonia also dispatched two 12-member Border Guard teams to Latvia in June. Veiko Kommusaar, head of Border Guard at Estonia's Police and Border Guard Board, emphasized the shared responsibility, stating, "The Latvian-Belarusian border is both the external border of NATO and the European Union, and thus also our border." The collective goal, as articulated by Dombrava, is to prevent any illegal border crosser from entering through the EU's external frontier, a goal currently challenged by the situation.

The increase in secondary migration from Latvia has also created internal discussions within Lithuania. Lithuanian border authorities report a more than fourfold increase in migrants attempting to transit westward through Lithuania after entering the EU via Latvia, compared to the previous year's first half. This surge has led to debates in Lithuania regarding the potential introduction of temporary border controls with Latvia, mirroring Poland's year-long checks on travelers from Lithuania and Germany. Lithuania's new Interior Minister Martynas Katelynas has not ruled out such a measure if it becomes the only means to manage the flow.

Despite these internal discussions, the immediate focus, as stated by Dombrava after signing an agreement to deepen law enforcement cooperation, remains on reinforcing the EU's external frontier rather than restricting movement within the bloc. "At the moment there is no question of restoring border control on the Latvian-Lithuanian border," he clarified, "but rather the possibility of sending a significant number of border guards to each other to support the country that is currently experiencing the greatest pressure."

Officials from the Baltic countries consistently argue that this migration is not spontaneous but a state-directed operation, with migrants being used as geopolitical pawns. Kommusaar described it as "a deliberate operation organised with the support of Belarus, with the aim of undermining border security and the general sense of security," where "ordinary people are used as a means of pressure to achieve their goal." The Latvian interior ministry indicates that many migrants legally enter Belarus before being transported to the borders with Latvia, Lithuania, or Poland and directed to crossing points. Belarusian security forces are alleged to escort migrants to the frontier, provide equipment to breach barriers, and in some cases, prevent their return deeper into Belarus. Lina Laurinaitytė, spokesperson for the Lithuanian State Border Guard Service, noted a change in migrant nationalities over time, previously including citizens from Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Iran, Yemen, Somalia, Cameroon, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, reinforcing the view that this is "a state-organised operation designed to exert political pressure on the European Union."