EU Nears Major Shift: 'Nuclear Option' Against Hungary on the Brink

The European Parliament is considering ending the long-standing Article 7 procedure against Hungary, an exceptional EU measure known as the “nuclear option.” This procedure was initiated in 2018 due to concerns over serious violations of EU values under the then-prime minister Viktor Orbán, encompassing issues such as judicial independence, corruption, media freedom, fundamental rights, and the rights of minorities and migrants.

With Péter Magyar now leading the Hungarian government, the country has begun revising several laws from the Orbán era, prompting many MEPs and officials to reconsider their stance. A senior MEP from the European People’s Party (EPP), the Parliament’s largest political group, expressed that Hungary has completed numerous reforms aligning it more closely with the EU, making the procedure's end seem reasonable and hopeful for a swift resolution. The EPP, alongside other political forces, is prepared to advocate for the withdrawal of Article 7, aiming to secure a political victory for Magyar’s Tisza party, which is affiliated with the EPP.

A critical fact-finding mission to Hungary is slated for late October. During this mission, MEPs will engage with various institutions, stakeholders, authorities, and NGOs to compile a comprehensive understanding of the country's rule of law situation. Following this, the participating MEPs will draft a report, expected to recommend the withdrawal of the procedure if they conclude that EU values are no longer being violated. While some Parliament officials suggest a potential withdrawal as early as December, Dutch MEP Tineke Strik, who is overseeing the file, projects the report's completion for early 2027.

Strik emphasized that a thorough checklist of criteria must be assessed, explicitly mentioning the withdrawal of the controversial anti-LGBTI+ law as a key element. This legislation, ostensibly aimed at protecting minors, restricts children’s access to content promoting or depicting deviations from biological sex, gender transition, or homosexuality. As of now, the Hungarian government has neither repealed this law nor announced any intention to do so.

The final decision to withdraw the Article 7 procedure mandates a two-thirds majority vote in the European Parliament, requiring at least 480 of the 719 lawmakers to vote in favor. Political divisions are evident: left-wing groups, including the Greens and The Left, are likely to oppose the withdrawal, whereas conservatives and far-right factions are expected to support it, consistently viewing Article 7 as an unwarranted intrusion into national politics. With the EPP’s 184 lawmakers poised to back the move, the positions of the centrist Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and liberal Renew Europe groups will be crucial. Both centrist groups acknowledge Hungary’s progress but insist on a thorough assessment based on the full body of legislation. Renew Europe is set to discuss the matter at its initial meeting of the new parliamentary season in Paris. MEP Sandro Gozi underscored the necessity for the procedure’s end to be predicated on tangible changes, cautioning against the perception of a purely political decision.

Historically, the Article 7 procedure has been triggered only twice: by the Commission against Poland in 2017 and by the European Parliament against Hungary in 2018. Neither case progressed to the sanctions stage, which would require unanimous support from all EU member states to suspend a country’s voting rights. The procedure against Poland was concluded in 2024 following the replacement of the far-right Law and Justice (PiS) government by a coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, which subsequently brought the country into compliance with the Commission's demands on judicial independence.