EU at a Crossroads: Brussels Grapples with Historic Expansion Decision!

For the first time since Brexit, the European Union is experiencing a tangible opportunity for growth, driven by a once-in-a-generation momentum for enlargement. This renewed ambition is underscored by several "frontrunners" nearing membership, alongside Ukraine and Moldova taking decisive steps away from Moscow's influence, and Iceland reconsidering its accession talks. EU officials highlight unprecedented progress, with more negotiating chapters closed in the past six months than in the preceding decade, signaling a strategic use of accession as a foreign policy tool to consolidate influence, extend security guarantees, and foster stability in a volatile geopolitical landscape.

As the prospect of an expanded Union becomes more concrete, Brussels faces critical political and strategic questions, particularly concerning geographical balance. The 2004 "Big Bang" enlargement, which saw ten new Central and Eastern European states join, shifted the EU's center of gravity eastward, causing concerns in some Western European capitals. While current frontrunners like Montenegro and Albania are modest in size and would not significantly alter this balance, their nearing accession brings to the fore the contentious issue of Serbia. The "Friends of the Western Balkans" express reservations about the geopolitical considerations influencing Belgrade's bid, suggesting the merits-based process is not being applied uniformly.

Pressure to open more accession clusters with Ukraine and Moldova before year-end is intensifying calls for maintaining geographical balance, potentially making Ukraine's progress contingent on Serbia's. Iceland, a wealthy Nordic country, could unexpectedly rebalance the bloc's economic make-up if its ongoing referendum leads to a resumption of accession talks. Ukraine, however, remains the "elephant in the room." EU capitals acknowledge that some form of European membership or security guarantee will likely be integral to any future peace deal with Moscow. Despite its economy, Kyiv's significant territory, population, and military capacity would render it an influential member, particularly in defense and foreign policy, prompting a broader reckoning on the functioning of an enlarged Union.

The necessity for internal reform within the EU is equally pressing. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's 2023 State of the Union address announced pre-enlargement policy reviews, a blueprint for an EU of 30+ members. This plan, initially shelved due to the complexities of Ukraine's bid, is now slated for publication on September 30, as the EU executive aims to regain initiative. European governments are debating strategies for managing new members, proposing measures like stronger democratic safeguards – a lesson learned from Hungary's experience under Viktor Orbán – and gradual integration to deliver early, tangible benefits of EU membership.

More fundamentally, the Commission is expected to propose reforms to the EU's own inner workings to ensure its continued functionality post-enlargement. Calls to end the unanimity requirement in areas like foreign policy have grown louder, driven by a desire to make the bloc's external actions more decisive in a tense geopolitical climate, especially given Orbán's repeated obstruction of EU decision-making. The idea of a leaner, more agile European Commission, possibly by scrapping the principle of one commissioner per member state, could also resurface, despite opposition from smaller countries. While some skeptics argue against deep reforms during upcoming election cycles in key EU countries like France, others counter that such long-delayed changes cannot afford to wait.

Finally, the EU enlargement process faces the significant hurdle of ratification uncertainty. Historically, member states air their grievances before negotiations conclude, as seen with North Macedonia's disputes with Greece and Bulgaria. However, the political landscape in founding members like the Netherlands and France has shifted rightward, making voters generally more wary of enlargement. While blocking accession outright at the ratification stage would be unprecedented, it remains a genuine risk. Montenegro's head of mission to the EU, Petar Marković, highlighted that his country's willingness to accept additional safeguards on rule of law and democratic backsliding is precisely aimed at smoothing this critical ratification process.

France poses the biggest question mark, having introduced a constitutional amendment in 2005 requiring any new accession treaty to either be put to a national referendum or approved by a three-fifths majority in a joint parliamentary session. Montenegro is poised to be the initial test case, with its ratification potentially bundled with Albania's, depending on their progress, or with Iceland's, pending its referendum outcome. Experts warn that if Montenegro's accession fails, it would severely derail the entire process, necessitating a clear contingency plan to address such a scenario, marking a true moment of truth for the EU's ambitious enlargement agenda.