Climate Change Threatens to Reverse Global Poverty Reduction Gains

A new report from the World Bank highlights the severe implications of climate change on global poverty reduction efforts, projecting that climate-induced income losses could push an additional 41 million people into extreme poverty by 2050. Titled ‘The Future of Poverty: Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on Global Poverty through 2050’, the study warns that the total number of individuals living in extreme poverty worldwide could nearly double due to environmental shifts.

Key projections include:

• A potential rise of up to 148.8 million people living in extreme poverty globally.

• A concentration of poverty in South Asia, where 48.8 million people could be impoverished by 2030.

The report identifies Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean as the most at-risk regions. In these areas, extreme weather events are expected to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and expose the weaknesses of social protection systems, hindering development and poverty eradication efforts.

Urgent Need for Global Action and Inclusive Policies

To mitigate these outcomes, the World Bank stresses the critical need for strengthened social safety nets and targeted subsidies for the most vulnerable populations. The report calls for international cooperation, urging high-income countries—the largest historical contributors to global emissions—to:

• Provide vital financial resources

• Facilitate technology transfer

• Support capacity-building in low- and middle-income countries

These measures are essential for building resilience to climate shocks and supporting a transition to low-carbon development.

Additionally, the report emphasizes that reducing income inequality must be central to any anti-poverty strategy. Even small increases in inequality could result in substantial rises in poverty. Thus, it advocates for:

• Inclusive economic growth

• Dismantling barriers to education and employment

• Strengthening social protection systems

Key policy recommendations include expanding access to healthcare, education, and financial services, and investing in agriculture, infrastructure, and climate adaptation to enhance livelihood resilience.

Escalating Economic and Food Security Risks

The report warns that climate change-induced rising food prices will further intensify poverty, especially in developing countries where food comprises a large share of household spending.

Without intervention, global economic output could shrink by 23% by 2100 compared to a climate-neutral scenario. Most projections estimate global income losses exceeding 20%, illustrating the severe economic consequences of inaction.

Notably, the poorest countries will suffer the most, as they are often located in already warm regions that are more vulnerable to temperature increases. This disproportionate impact highlights the urgent need for equitable climate policies and targeted international support.