The recently concluded Chawama Parliamentary by-election in Zambia has delivered a significant political verdict, with the United Party for National Development (UPND) noting the official results and congratulating the winner. Bright Nundwe of the Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD) emerged victorious, scooping the highly contested seat. This by-election, held on a wet Friday morning in Chawama, underscored Zambia’s entrenched democratic dispensation, where elections are conducted as constitutionally prescribed whenever a parliamentary seat becomes vacant.

The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) formally declared Bright Nundwe the winner, who secured 8,085 votes. He defeated Morgan Muunda of the ruling UPND, who polled 6,542 votes. A total of 18,096 votes were cast, with 290 ballots rejected. This result handed the opposition a symbolic victory in a constituency that has been politically and emotionally charged, particularly due to its close association with the legacy of former President Edgar Chagwa Lungu, whose death and unresolved burial became a central theme throughout the campaign. The by-election itself was largely peaceful, with voting opening and closing on time, and a visible yet restrained security presence. Observers and the ECZ described the process as orderly, dismissing social media claims of manipulation.

For many, the election was viewed as an opportunity to honor the legacy of Edgar Chagwa Lungu, a son of Chawama whose daughter previously held the seat before its nullification due to prolonged absence. The campaign messaging from PF-aligned actors and Tonse Alliance surrogates leaned heavily into this grief narrative, framing the by-election as a referendum on respect, dignity, and legacy rather than solely on policy delivery. This emotional appeal resonated with enough voters to tilt the outcome, demonstrating that "emotion often defeats reason where reason fails to speak loudly." The Tonse Alliance and Patriotic Front (PF) aligned behind the FDD ticket, utilizing it as a Special Purpose Vehicle due to internal wrangles and legal challenges within the PF itself. The PF, despite its machinery being weakened and legal authority fragmented, adapted by supporting the FDD candidate, showcasing that a political party is defined by its people, not merely ink on paper.

The UPND acknowledged its loss as an opportunity for learning, reflection, and renewed mobilization. While a review of the results showed the UPND had improved its percentage terms compared to the 2021 General Election, the party candidly stated that "there is no excuse for losing a by-election." This outcome has prompted a critical point of introspection for the UPND to re-examine its strategies, structures, and mobilization mechanisms in Chawama and beyond. Dr. Larry Mweetwa's post-election strategic review identified ten key reasons for the UPND's loss, including the successful "weaponisation of collective emotion" by opponents, strategic under-resourcing of a high-risk constituency, candidate selection misalignment (lack of a Chawama resident), inadequacy of campaign materials, demotivation of foot soldiers due to insufficient support, absence of a clear localized campaign narrative addressing specific Chawama challenges (like overcrowding or youth unemployment), leadership apathy and strategic absences of senior party figures, logistical failures on polling day, underestimation of structurally weak opponents (FDD offered no manifesto, relying on emotional appeal), and insufficient high-level political reinforcement.

The aggregated opposition votes across FDD, Citizens First (1,534 votes), and other smaller parties (Independent candidates 894, NCP 319, EPPP 239, LM 100, NDC 93) totaled 11,264, significantly outpacing UPND's 6,542 votes. This demonstrated that even a fragmented and uncoordinated opposition could defeat the UPND by a margin of 4,722 votes, or more than 62% of the participating electorate voting against the ruling party. This highlights a crucial lesson for the opposition: unity is not just strategic but necessary. As one analysis noted, "A fragmented opposition still defeated UPND. A united opposition would have crushed it." The roles played by figures like Given Lubinda, Miles Sampa, Lawrence Sichalwe, and Chishimba Kambwili in organizing on the ground were instrumental in delivering this result, demonstrating that PF still possesses political heavyweights capable of winning elections.

The Electoral Commission of Zambia and law enforcement agencies received commendation for their professional conduct. President Hakainde Hichilema stated that the by-election reaffirmed the ECZ's operation in a free, fair, and credible environment, supported by law enforcement agencies executing the law fairly but firmly. Chief Electoral Officer Brown Kasaro also refuted allegations of fake polling stations made by Mr. Sampa, demanding an apology and emphasizing the ECZ's commitment to a transparent and inclusive electoral process. Despite claims of "selective blindness" regarding political symbols, the overall process was described as orderly.

The Chawama outcome offers a "data-rich snapshot" of Zambia's opposition politics at a transitional moment. The low voter turnout, with over 80% of registered voters staying away, was interpreted by some as a "political withdrawal" and a "silent referendum" on the circumstances surrounding the by-election, particularly its timing during the Lungu family's mourning and unresolved litigation. This suggested that many citizens viewed the by-election as a continuation of political pursuit rather than a democratic necessity. Democratic Union president Ackim Anthony Njobvu stated that the loss demonstrated the Zambian people are the real opposition, urging UPND to use the remaining months before 2026 to exit.

Ultimately, Chawama was more than just a by-election; it was a "stress test" and a "warning shot" for both the ruling party and the opposition ahead of the 2026 General Election. For the UPND, it exposed the limits of policy messaging when confronted with unresolved political grief and identity-driven politics. For the opposition, the win offers momentum and narrative leverage, emphasizing that a united front is paramount to overcome UPND's significant headstart (e.g., in Southern Province). The lesson is clear: "emotion must be met with empathy, strategy with resources, and leadership with presence." The road to 2026 demands recalibration, not despair, with the understanding that "UPND cannot beat the opposition. Only the opposition can beat itself." The by-election not only chose a Member of Parliament but also reshaped the political contest and breathed new life into Given Lubinda’s quest to lead the Patriotic Front.