Brexit at 10: Europe Reflects on The Divorce That Still Defines Britain, Promises Unkept
A decade after the Brexit vote, many promises made by the Vote Leave campaign remain unfulfilled, creating a complex reality far from initial expectations. From contested NHS funding and challenging trade deals to persistent regulatory ties and profound societal shifts, the UK's departure from the EU has left a lasting impact on its economy, politics, and identity, with the human cost felt by many citizens.
Ten years have passed since the United Kingdom's momentous decision to leave the European Union on June 23, 2016, a vote that ushered in an era of profound change and often-contested outcomes. The Vote Leave campaign, spearheaded by figures like Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, made numerous alluring promises that captured the public's imagination, from economic boons to reclaiming national sovereignty. A decade on, an examination of these pledges reveals a complex reality, often diverging significantly from initial expectations, while also highlighting the enduring societal and political fault lines.
One of the most prominent claims, famously emblazoned on the Vote Leave battlebus, was that leaving the EU would free up “£350m a week for the NHS,” enough to build a new hospital every week. While health spending in the UK has indeed risen in real terms over the decade, consistently increasing year-on-year, experts from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, like Max Warner, note that this trend predates Brexit and was further necessitated by the Covid-19 pandemic. It's impossible to disentangle whether leaving the EU directly caused this increase. However, the broader economic consensus is that Brexit has made the economy smaller—by an estimated 4% to 8%—which, by reducing tax revenues, makes it harder to fund public services like the NHS, outweighing any savings from EU budget contributions.
Another promise related to an “easiest free trade agreement in human history,” a claim made by then international trade secretary Liam Fox. This casual confidence quickly dissipated. The EU refused to discuss future trade until exit terms were settled, leading to protracted and often fierce negotiations. The subsequent Withdrawal Agreement involved a £30bn payment and complex issues like the fate of EU citizens and avoiding a hard border in Ireland. The eventual Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), ratified in late 2020, secured tariff-free trade in goods but introduced significant customs checks and paperwork for UK exporters. Negotiators like Lord David Frost made substantial concessions, particularly on regulatory checks between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. John Springford of the Centre for European Reform estimates that goods exports to the EU are now approximately 15% lower than they might have been without Brexit, contradicting the ease and benefits promised.
The vision of being “free to trade with the whole world” also faced a challenging reality. While the UK has struck deals with major economies like Australia, New Zealand, and as part of the CPTPP, the EU has also secured similar agreements. David Henig, director of the UK Trade Policy Project, observes no evidence of the UK surging ahead of a “sclerotic EU.” Early efforts to secure a US deal were largely wasted, and deals with Australia and New Zealand sparked fury among British farmers due to what were seen as overly generous concessions by UK negotiators. Henig suggests that only agreements like the CPTPP might prove genuinely beneficial, concluding that the “easiest and most important have been done already,” leaving politically contentious markets like the US and China.
On the regulatory front, promises of a “bonfire of Brussels red tape” have largely remained unfulfilled. Complaints from Boris Johnson about EU dictating the power of vacuum cleaners (an energy efficiency measure) or the shape of bananas (quality guidelines) proved to be minor or non-issues. Ten years on, the vacuum cleaner energy limits remain in the UK, with no industry demand to revert. Similarly, rules concerning food standards, including banana shape, have seen little change, as voters largely did not desire lower standards. Manufacturers attest to a “deafening silence” regarding a bonfire of regulations, with some changes, like the UKCA mark meant to replace the EU’s CE mark, proving more costly and leading to duplication rather than simplification, eventually seeing the government extend the validity of the CE mark.
A critical and deeply contentious area was the promise of an “unchanged” border in Northern Ireland. Despite warnings from figures like John Major and Tony Blair about potential border controls, Johnson insisted on no changes. Matthew O’Toole, then a senior press officer in No 10, recalls the issue being underestimated. The EU's insistence on the integrity of its single market meant that a frictionless border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, while satisfying British demands for freedom from Brussels, became the most intractable challenge. Theresa May's