The year 2025 began with high expectations for the Bitcoin price, widely anticipated to be the pinnacle of its four-year cycle, especially following the halving event, the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, and the election of a new president promising economic stimulus. Despite these seemingly perfect conditions, which many believed would lead to a strong Q4 blow-off top, 2025 turned out to be a "Year of Snakes and precious few ladders" for Bitcoin. This period, coincidentally aligned with the Chinese Year of the Snake, proved to be a test of resilience for investors.

Looking back at 2025, the year kicked off with several bullish catalysts. On January 1st, FASB fair value accounting rules came into effect, enabling companies to report Bitcoin profits, not just losses. This was swiftly followed by the inauguration of a "Bitcoin President," significant shifts in regulatory leadership with Paul Atkins taking over the SEC and Mike Selig the CFTC, and the notable release of Ross Ulbricht. The financial infrastructure for Bitcoin also matured, with ETFs becoming fully operational and options trading on IBIT expanding. Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy embarked on an unprecedented $25 billion buying spree, dwarfing previous acquisitions and expanding the corporate treasury list to nearly 200 companies. By October 6th, Bitcoin reached an All-Time High, setting the stage for what many hoped would be a climactic year-end rally. However, instead of accelerating, the market reversed course, sliding down to $80,000.

Several "snakes" contributed to this downturn. The "Knots vs. Core" drama created initial unease, followed by a critical "technical issue" at Binance on October 10th, which manifested as a rug-pulling glitch. This incident likely forced liquidations and triggered sell pressure from long-term holders conditioned to sell in Q4 of a cycle's fourth year. Subsequently, a FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) campaign emerged, targeting MicroStrategy with threats of MSCI exclusion and reviving the "quantum attack" narrative against Bitcoin itself. This combination of events trapped Bitcoin's price in purgatory, range-bound between $84,000 and $95,000, despite earlier expectations that IBIT options would provide more trading flexibility.

Despite the challenges of 2025, a significant shift in sentiment and market dynamics is anticipated for 2026, which aligns with the Chinese Year of the Horse, symbolizing speed and growth. The setup is considered highly favorable: a pro-Bitcoin president, an evolving multipolar global economy, an immense $7 trillion debt wall to be addressed, and a regulatory environment that has shed the influence of past speculative "cowboys" like FTX and Terra-Luna. Furthermore, the tax year has concluded, new budgets have been allocated, and FASB fair value accounting is fully operational, smoothing the path for corporate adoption. Michael Saylor's relentless accumulation continues, and initial FUD campaigns, such as the MSCI exclusion threat, have been successfully countered. Crucially, market analysts observe signs of bear exhaustion and a significant capitulation among long-term holders. The proportion of the Realized Cap invested above $95k plummeted from approximately 67% to 47% in the last two months of 2025, indicating that weak hands have been flushed out and new buyers have entered with a stronger, lower cost basis. This capitulation phase, historically a precursor to growth, is nearing its end as the Year of the Snake officially concludes on February 16, 2026, coinciding almost perfectly with the CME Futures expiry on February 27th.

The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, previously linked to halvings and presidential terms, is now understood to be primarily a "Liquidity Based Cycle." Raoul Pal's insights highlight Bitcoin as a liquidity asset, functioning as the highest-beta risk asset that reacts most intensely to shifts in global risk appetite. This cycle can be measured by proxy using the ISM Manufacturing PMI, a qualitative index reflecting the business cycle. With the PMI in contraction for nearly two years (currently at 47.9), the market has been in a bear phase. However, ISM projections for 2026 indicate 4.4% revenue growth in manufacturing, with the PMI expected to cross 50 in Q2, aligning with new political policies. Historically, bull markets have topped out when the PMI ranges between 55 and 65, suggesting a significant upturn is imminent as bullish divergence momentum builds.

A critical factor driving the anticipated liquidity surge is the colossal $9 trillion debt wall the U.S. government faces, maturing in 2026 alone. This figure comprises a projected $1.5 trillion increase for President Trump's "Dream Military" in 2027, $4.1 trillion in debt maturing in 2026, and the standard annual deficit, creating a $9 trillion liquidity gap. An additional $7.4 trillion is expected before 2028. While not all of this will be printed, strategies like enforcing USD oil sales (potentially adding $2-3 trillion annually in artificial dollar demand) and tariffs are expected to contribute. The inevitable monetization of the remaining gap by the Federal Reserve is highly probable, especially with Jerome Powell's anticipated departure in May, clearing the path for increased money printing. Globally, another $5-10 trillion in debt is due in 2026, and the same again in 2027, signaling a widespread liquidity injection that will likely trigger a new wave of inflation reminiscent of the 1970s and 80s.

Forecasting into 2026-2027, the liquidity cycle is just beginning. Samuel Benner's 19th-century forecasting chart, which maps long-term economic cycles, places 2026 squarely in a "B" year, signifying "Good Times, High Prices." This period is historically favorable for risk assets. Based on historical patterns, the aggressive money printing phase, if it begins in late 2025, is projected to last 18-24 months, stabilizing and reflating through mid-2027. The sheer volume of maturing debt suggests approximately $9-10 trillion in liquidity from the U.S. Treasury alone in 2026, with a further $5-10 trillion globally, doubling the liquidity seen during the COVID crisis. This unprecedented liquidity is expected to propel Bitcoin. During the $5 trillion COVID expansion, Bitcoin rallied approximately 20x from $3k-$4k to $69k. With potentially double that liquidity, a conservative 10x to 12x multiple from the effective $16k low could place Bitcoin in the $160k to $200k range. More aggressive models, like PlanC's quantile model, suggest targets exceeding $300k by the end of 2026, while Giovanni Santostasi's Power Law projects a peak potentially around $210k early on, with outlier scenarios reaching as high as $600k. A significant catalyst could be the passage of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, leading the U.S. Treasury to officially stack Bitcoin alongside MicroStrategy, which would fundamentally alter price trajectories. The market top is predicted for late 2026 to mid-2027, approximately 12-18 months after the liquidity expansion enters its "mania" phase, aligning with the ISM Manufacturing PMI crossing above 50 in early 2026. While sharp corrections and regulatory noise are expected, the foundational "ladders" for substantial growth are firmly in place. The close of the Year of the Snake and the February 27 CME futures expiry mark a potential ignition point, just ahead of the anticipated PMI uptick in Q2, signaling a transformative period for Bitcoin.