Africa's Scorching Reality: Southern Provinces Brace for Extreme Heatwave, Rain on the Horizon

Published 4 days ago6 minute read
Pelumi Ilesanmi
Pelumi Ilesanmi
Africa's Scorching Reality: Southern Provinces Brace for Extreme Heatwave, Rain on the Horizon

South Africa's nine provinces are experiencing a range of weather conditions today, with daily temperature updates and UVB forecasts provided to help residents prepare. General hot and sunny conditions are expected to persist across most parts of the country throughout the weekend, with hot weather likely to continue into next week in northern areas, accompanied by limited rainfall.

Gauteng is forecast to be partly cloudy and warm, with isolated showers and thundershowers. The province’s UVB Sunburn Index is expected to be high. Historically, Gauteng is the smallest province in South Africa, covering 18,178 square kilometres, but it is the most populous with an estimated 16 million inhabitants as per the 2020 census. Its administrative capital is Johannesburg, located at 25°44′46″S 28°11′17″E. While no heatwave is predicted for Gauteng, temperatures are expected to reach the low 30s.

Mpumalanga will see cloudy conditions initially, with morning drizzle along the escarpment and Lowveld, transitioning to partly cloudy with isolated showers and thundershowers over the Highveld. Mpumalanga is the second smallest province at 76,495 square kilometres and the sixth most populous with approximately 4.7 million inhabitants (2020 census). Its capital and largest city is Mbombela (formerly Nelspruit), situated at 25°27′57″S 30°59′07″E. Isolated afternoon thundershowers are also expected in parts of Mpumalanga.

Limpopo is expected to be cloudy at first, with morning light rain and drizzle in the central and eastern parts. It will then become partly cloudy and warm to hot, with isolated thundershowers in the south-west. Limpopo is the fifth largest province (125,754 square kilometres) and the fifth most populous with an estimated 5.9 million inhabitants (2020 census). The capital and largest city is Polokwane, located at 23°54′00″S 29°27′00″E.

The North West province will experience morning fog patches in the east, otherwise partly cloudy and warm to hot, with isolated showers and thundershowers in the east. The extreme west will be fine. The North West ranks as the sixth largest province at 104,882 square kilometres and the seventh most populous with an estimated 4.2 million inhabitants (2020 census). Its capital is Mahikeng (formerly Mafikeng), situated at 25°51′56″S 25°38′37″E. Isolated afternoon thundershowers are also expected in parts of North West.

The Free State will have morning fog patches in the east, followed by partly cloudy and warm to hot conditions with isolated showers and thundershowers in the east. The west will be fine. The Free State is the third largest province (129,825 square kilometres) and the second smallest in population, with an estimated 2.9 million inhabitants (2020 census). Its capital and biggest city is Bloemfontein, South Africa’s judicial capital, situated at 29°07′S 26°13′E.

The Northern Cape is forecast to be fine and hot to very hot, but warm along the coast. The wind along the coast will be moderate to fresh southerly to south-easterly, strengthening from the afternoon. The Northern Cape is the largest of South Africa’s provinces at 372,889 square kilometres and the smallest in terms of population, with an estimated 1.3 million inhabitants (2020 census). Its capital is Kimberley, located at 28°44′18″S 24°45′50″E. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has issued a heatwave warning for parts of the Northern Cape, expected to persist until Thursday, 29 January 2026. Residents are urged to take precautions against prolonged sun exposure. Extremely high fire danger conditions are also expected over the central and northern parts of the Northern Cape.

The Western Cape will be partly cloudy along the south coast initially and along the south-west coast in the evening, otherwise fine and warm, with hot temperatures over the interior. Winds along the south coast will be light to moderate south-easterly, while elsewhere they will be light to moderate southerly to south-westerly, becoming strong along the northern parts of the west coast in the afternoon. The expected UVB Sunburn Index for the Western Cape is very high. The Western Cape is the fourth largest province (129,449 square kilometres) and the third most populous with an estimated 7.2 million inhabitants (2020 census). Its capital city is Cape Town, situated at 33°55′31″S 18°25′26″E.

In the Eastern Cape, the western half will be fine and warm to hot, with moderate south-westerly winds becoming light south-easterly in the afternoon, and light and variable in the evening. The eastern half will experience morning fog in places, otherwise partly cloudy and cool to warm with light rain along the East Coast and adjacent interior in the morning, becoming fine over the interior in the afternoon but cloudy by late evening. Winds along the coast will be light and variable at first, becoming moderate to fresh north-easterly. The Eastern Cape is the second largest province at 168,966 square kilometres and the fourth biggest in population with an estimated 6.7 million inhabitants (2020 census). Its capital is Bhisho, located at 32°50′58″S 27°26′17″E. SAWS has issued a heatwave warning for places over Sarah Baartman, Chris Hani, Joe Gqabi, Alfred Nzo, OR Tambo and Amathole District Municipalities, lasting until Thursday, 29 January 2026.

KwaZulu-Natal is forecast to have morning fog over the interior, otherwise partly cloudy and warm to hot with isolated showers and thundershowers, except in the north-east. Winds along the coast will be moderate southerly to south-westerly in the north, otherwise moderate to fresh easterly to north-easterly, spreading to the north by late afternoon. The expected UVB Sunburn Index is high. KwaZulu-Natal is the seventh largest province (94,361 square kilometres) and the second most populous with an estimated 11.5 million inhabitants (2020 census). The capital city is Pietermaritzburg, situated at 29°37′S 30°23′E.

Beyond provincial forecasts, there are specific weather alerts. There are no impact-based warnings. However, extremely high fire danger conditions are expected over the central and northern parts of the Northern Cape, western and central parts of the Free State, as well as the extreme south-western parts of North West. Heatwave advisories are in place for parts of the Eastern Cape and Northern Cape, with persistently high temperatures expected until Thursday, 29 January 2026.

To stay cool during a heatwave, the World Health Organisation advises the following: keep your body cool and hydrated, keep your home cool, and stay out of the heat by avoiding going outside during the hottest time of the day. It is important to stay in the shade, remembering that reported temperatures are measured in the shade, and it can be 10-15˚C hotter in direct sunlight. Additionally, avoid strenuous physical activity if possible; if necessary, perform such activities during the coolest part of the day, typically between 04:00 and 07:00.

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