On January 31, 2026, the global Decentralised Prediction Market (DPM) sector experienced an unprecedented surge, with total trading volume reaching $12 billion—a staggering 240% increase in just a few months, according to Dune Analytics.

From global elections to volatile tech stocks, blockchain technology is increasingly used to “price” future events.

Yet, a paradox exists in Africa. Despite being a world leader in retail crypto adoption and possessing a deeply ingrained betting culture, the continent lacks a prominent, African-focused DPM.

Ecosystem Observer Olayinka Omoniyi explains that this absence stems from both infrastructure and adoption challenges.

Unlike traditional bookmakers, DPMs use blockchain-based smart contracts and decentralized data feeds (oracles) to automatically settle trades. Prices reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd—for example, a “Yes” share priced at $0.70 implies a 70% perceived probability of that outcome.

Although platforms like Bayse (formerly GoWagr) and UltraMarket by Njoku are emerging, African DPMs still struggle to gain traction.

The main hurdle is not technical but discovery. High costs of distribution channels, including legacy media, digital ads, and user-generated content, make it difficult for local founders to reach potential users.

Omoniyi suggests a strategy of “Brand Equity Hijacking,” where local DPMs co-market with established African brands to leverage trust and reach at lower cost.

Challenges: Sports Betting, UX, and Data Access

The biggest barrier to African DPM adoption is the continent’s pervasive sports betting industry. In markets like Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya, betting is a daily habit worth billions. Yet, this behavior has not naturally transitioned to blockchain-based prediction markets.

According to Omoniyi, the failure lies primarily in User Experience (UX): “Any prediction market platform that doesn’t optimise for the pattern of how users already interact with sports betting platforms will see slow adoption and higher learning friction.”

Beyond UX, DPMs require high-fidelity data to settle markets accurately.

“The major hurdle for local prediction markets is the cost of access to the data of events happening across Africa; the next hurdle is liquidity for seamless participation, which isn’t cheap,” Omoniyi explains.

Without affordable data and sufficient liquidity, local DPMs face an uphill battle in gaining user trust and activity.

The reliance on offshore DPMs, such as Polymarket, has economic implications.

Participating in these “borrowed” ecosystems exposes African users to potential access restrictions and continuously channels liquidity out of the continent.

Local DPMs, by contrast, could retain financial benefits, circulate shared value, and allow Africa to “own our narrative,” Omoniyi emphasizes.

Bridging the Gap: From Crypto to People-Centric Platforms

A key reason many Africans, particularly Nigerians, favor sports betting is familiarity and habit, combined with easy and low-cost access. Sports fan bias also encourages users to stick with platforms they already know and trust.

To unlock the $12 billion potential of DPMs in Africa, platforms must evolve from being perceived solely as crypto products to “people products”.

This involves designing user experiences that mirror local betting habits, investing in habit-changing marketing strategies, and making platforms indispensable for daily engagement.

Omoniyi underscores that African DPMs must resemble familiar betting platforms rather than complex crypto exchanges to achieve widespread adoption.

If successful, Africa could actively participate in the booming global prediction market rather than merely observe, retaining both economic value and user engagement within the continent.