The African continent is bracing for significant economic repercussions, particularly rising fuel and food prices, as disruptions in the critical Strait of Hormuz escalate due to the ongoing conflict involving Iran. According to Ronald Mlalazi, President of the Africa Supply Chain Confederation (ASCON), what began as a geopolitical issue has rapidly transformed into a major supply chain shock. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil transit route, which normally facilitates roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows, is now partially blocked, militarized, and unpredictable, impacting Africa more profoundly than many realize.

The disruptions extend beyond oil, affecting the movement of essential commodities such as fertilizer, petrochemicals, plastics, and liquefied natural gas, all of which are crucial for African economies. Quoting the International Energy Agency, Mlalazi highlighted that the partial blockade represents the largest disruption in oil market history, impacting up to 30% of global oil flows. Consequently, oil prices are reacting sharply, with analysts openly discussing scenarios of $150-$200 per barrel if the disruptions persist for another 4-8 weeks.

The impact on fertilizer is particularly severe for Africa. Across East and Southern Africa, countries like Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Zambia have a structural dependence on Middle Eastern supply chains, not an optional one. More than 50% of fertilizer imports for parts of East Africa come via these routes, and globally, up to one-third of fertilizer trade passes through Hormuz. Urea prices have already surged by 50% since the conflict began, and anticipated fertilizer shortages are expected to disrupt planting cycles within weeks. This will directly translate into higher food prices, reduced agricultural yields, and increased inflation, a systemic issue in economies where food expenditure dominates household spending.

This warning from ASCON aligns with a March 30th report by the UN Trade and Development Agency (UNCTAD), titled "From gas to grain: Fertilizer disruptions raise risks for food security and trade." The UNCTAD report confirms that the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz region is disrupting energy and fertilizer flows, leading to measurable cost increases and growing risks for global food systems, trade, and vulnerable economies. Energy markets have reacted immediately, with oil prices surging and natural gas prices rising steeply across Europe and Asia. The increase in oil and gas prices directly affects fertilizer production costs, as natural gas is a key input for nitrogen-based fertilizers, thereby driving fertilizer prices even higher.

UNCTAD also warned that the disruption could severely worsen access to fertilizer for some of the poorest nations. Estimates suggest Sudan imports 54% of its fertilizer through the Persian Gulf in 2024, while Tanzania and Kenya rely on the same route for 31% and 26% of their imports, respectively. These nations, often with tight fiscal spaces and limited capacity to absorb price increases or secure alternative supplies, are particularly vulnerable.

Furthermore, the disruption is significantly increasing transport and trade costs. Freight rates for oil tankers have risen by over 90% since late February, bunker fuel prices have almost doubled, and war risk insurance premiums have surged, with some insurers withdrawing coverage for vessels in the Persian Gulf. Shipowners are compelled to either suspend transits or bear sharply higher insurance costs, which are then passed on to fertilizer prices and, subsequently, to agricultural production and exports.

ASCON further warns that the logistics industry in Africa will be profoundly affected. Ronald Mlalazi emphasized that "Diesel is the bloodstream of African logistics." As oil prices spike, transport costs will rise almost instantaneously, leading to higher road freight tariffs, increased airline and shipping surcharges, and margin compression across Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) and retail sectors. Major shipping lines are already rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit times, which results in longer lead times, working capital pressure, and increased stockouts.

Mlalazi stressed that the consequences of delayed fertilizer application will manifest months later as food inflation, social pressure, and currency weakness. He highlighted that Africa, largely a "price taker" and net importer of fuel and fertilizer, has little control over global shipping routes, leaving it highly exposed. The conflict, though geographically distant, is a supply chain event with immediate commercial consequences for Africa. Businesses that proactively prepare for continued instability in the Strait of Hormuz will be better positioned in the coming weeks to mitigate the impacts of slower trade, tighter margins, and rising food insecurity.