The Afghanistan Monitoring Report is part of ongoing FEWS NET efforts to assess agro-climatic conditions and their impacts on food security, agriculture, livestock, and livelihoods. This edition provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2024/25 wet season (October–June), which has concluded across most of the country—except in areas affected by seasonal monsoon rainfall. Drawing on advanced data and tools, the report supports evidence-based decision-making and response planning. Afghanistan-specific monitoring plots generated using the SMPG tool provide actionable insights at the livelihood zone, province, district, and basin levels. The report utilizes CHIRPS data and the FEWS GeoTOOLS to track the onset, progression, and conclusion of the wet season, complemented by insights from NOAA, NASA, WMO, BoM, UCSB’s Climate Hazards Center, and USGS EROS. Additionally, the report includes a snapshot of staple food prices in May, providing a brief overview of market trends and economic access to food.
Seasonal analog years were selected based on climate forecasts indicating average to below-average precipitation for the 2024/25 season. To account for recent warming trends, only post-2000 years were considered. These analogs suggest an increased likelihood of poor spring and winter wheat yields, with spring wheat being more vulnerable. However, the long lead time of these forecasts introduces some uncertainty regarding end-of-season outcomes. The analog years most aligned with expected 2024/25 rainfall patterns are: 2000-2001, 2003- 2004, 2005-2006, 2007-2008, 2010-2011, 2015-2016, 2017-2018, 2020-2021, 2022-2023, and 2023-2024.
The summer monsoon, a key climatic driver across South and East Asia, is forecasted to be above normal in both regions. This heightened activity is likely to bring increased rainfall, which may boost agricultural productivity, particularly in rainfed areas. However, it also raises the risk of flooding and other associated hazards, especially in vulnerable or low-lying regions.
Precipitation forecasts indicate above-average rainfall in many regions, driven by monsoon circulation and external climatic factors. While this may help alleviate drought concerns in certain areas, it will also necessitate flood preparedness in others. Given these potential impacts, closely monitoring the evolution of Monsoon remains critical for mitigating risks to livelihoods and food security.
