The Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) 2025 Round of 16 is set for a captivating encounter as the Super Eagles of Nigeria, overwhelming favourites, prepare to face the Mambas of Mozambique, a resilient underdog, on Monday, January 5, 2026. This crucial match, scheduled to take place at the Complexe Sportif de Fès (Stade de Fès), will determine who secures a coveted spot in the quarter-finals, where either DR Congo or Algeria await.

Nigeria enters this knockout phase with immense confidence, having showcased a flawless group stage performance. They emerged as Group C winners with a perfect record, winning all three matches, scoring eight goals, and conceding four. This impressive feat was matched only by Algeria. The Super Eagles, three-time African champions currently chasing their fourth title and first since 2013, demonstrated both attacking firepower and squad depth, even managing comfortable victories with heavy rotation, such as against Uganda. Star players like Victor Osimhen, the 2023 Africa Footballer of the Year, and Ademola Lookman, the 2024 winner, have been central to their campaign. Lookman boasts two goals and two assists in just two appearances, while Osimhen has contributed one goal and one assist from three games, with Akor Adams also expected to lead the line. Despite their offensive might, Nigeria’s defensive vulnerability, having conceded in all three group games, offers a glimmer of hope for their opponents.

Mozambique, by contrast, arrived in the knockout stages as one of the best third-placed teams from Group F, marking a historic maiden appearance in the last sixteen. Their journey included a dramatic 3-2 victory over Gabon, which was the country’s first-ever win at an AFCON finals. Although they suffered defeats against footballing giants Côte d’Ivoire and Cameroon, these performances hinted at their growing belief and resilience. Mozambican midfielder Manuel Kambala has expressed firm belief in his side's ability to cause an upset, stating, “I clearly believe we will advance with the team we have. We have already shown that on the field, we have already demonstrated that we are not just here to participate.” Similarly, defender Bruno Langa emphasized that the Mambas are not intimidated by Nigeria’s star power, viewing the challenge as a motivation to announce themselves on the continental stage. Midfielder Guima further highlighted the team's strength in playing as a cohesive unit rather than relying on individual stars, with Geny Catamo identified as a key threat for the Mambas.

Both head coaches have articulated their strategies and expectations. Mozambique’s coach Chiquinho Conde openly acknowledged Nigeria’s reputation as a football powerhouse but insisted his team is fully prepared for a historic upset. He stressed the importance of character, defensive solidity, efficient attacking play, and game management, particularly in transition phases. “We are humble, but we also have the ambition to make history for our people and our lives. There is nothing more special than winning against a big opponent like Nigeria,” Conde stated. Nigeria’s coach Eric Chelle faces the enviable problem of selecting his starting XI from a deep squad. He expects regulars like captain Wilfred Ndidi to return to the lineup, alongside a familiar back four of Bruno Onyemaechi, Calvin Bassey, Semi Ajayi, and Bright Osayi-Samuel, with Nwabali in goal. For Mozambique, Diogo Calila and Nene are sidelined by injury, while Manuel Kambala is expected to feature. The likely Mozambican lineup includes Urrubal; Nanani, Edmilson, Chamboco, Mexer; Kambala, Bonde; Domingues, Catamo, Vilanculos; and Ratifo.

Tactically, Nigeria is expected to dominate possession, push full-backs high, and aim to overload the wide channels, leveraging the pace and movement of Lookman and Osimhen. Mozambique, meanwhile, will likely sit deep, compress space, and look to exploit opportunities through quick transitions. History firmly favours Nigeria, who are unbeaten in five previous meetings across all competitions, recording four wins and a single draw. Their most recent AFCON encounter was a 3-0 group-stage victory in 2010. However, as numerous shocks in this tournament have already shown, knockout football is unpredictable, and reputations count for little once the whistle blows. Nigeria’s players, including Ademola Lookman, have been urged to maintain focus, recognizing that “this is not the vision for our team. We have set targets to accomplish here in Morocco and we are nowhere near our targets yet.” The Mambas, with nothing to lose and everything to gain, arrive believing that history is there to be rewritten. Kick-off is scheduled for 8:00 PM Nigerian time (7:00 PM GMT).