Zambia's Political Firestorm: High-Stakes Election Campaign Heats Up as Parties Battle for Presidency

Zambia's political landscape is keenly focused on the upcoming August 13 General Election, with a significant analysis published on August 8, 2026, by the Southern Africa Coalition for Democracy and Accountability and the Masosote Institute for Political Economy, predicting a first-round victory for incumbent President Hichilema and his United Party for National Development (UPND). The briefing, titled 'Zambia’s 13 August General Election: Assessing the Route to the Presidency,' suggests a mere 15-25 percent likelihood of a second round, attributing the ruling party's advantage to a combination of opposition fragmentation and organizational weaknesses.

A primary factor bolstering the UPND's position is the significant fragmentation within the opposition, with 14 presidential candidates on the ballot effectively dividing the anti-incumbent vote. Furthermore, the analysis points to the National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity (NRPUP), a key opposition party, as suffering from decisive organizational weaknesses rather than a rhetorical deficit. This disparity is particularly evident in ballot access, which the report identifies as the clearest measurable difference between the campaigns.

The UPND's extensive organizational capacity is highlighted by its widespread participation across all electoral levels. The party has fielded candidates in all 226 National Assembly constituencies and is contesting 115 out of 116 mayoral and council chairperson positions. Critically, at the ward level, where much of the election day machinery resides, the UPND has candidates countrywide, in stark contrast to the NRPUP which is contesting fewer than two-thirds of the 1,858 wards. This broad presence provides the UPND with a stronger capacity to mobilize voters and protect votes on poll day through its ability to place polling agents and monitor results effectively.

While a first-round UPND victory is deemed the most likely single outcome, the analysis cautions that this projected win should not be solely interpreted as evidence of overwhelming incumbent popularity. It suggests an underlying anti-incumbent sentiment among some voters. Nevertheless, figures like Ms. Siliya have voiced strong support for President Hichilema, urging Zambians to grant him a resounding victory. Siliya asserts that Zambia is progressing positively under his leadership, citing his performance in economic outlooks, peace, empowerment, and overall progress as compelling reasons for another mandate, emphasizing the need to embrace a good leader.

Conversely, the opposition has raised critical concerns and presented alternative visions. Makebi Zulu, the NRPUP running mate, has issued a warning that a re-election of President Hichilema would lead to the return of load-shedding, accusing the current administration of subjecting Zambians to prolonged electricity blackouts over the past four years. Addressing a virtual rally, Zulu appealed to voters in Southern Province to reject the UPND, promising that an NRPUP government, led by Brian Mundubile, would restore freedoms, offer quality leadership, and accelerate national development.

Adding another voice to the call for change is Dr. M’membe of the Socialist Party, who, speaking at a rally in Chifunabuli District, Luapula Province, articulated a vision for a new direction for Zambia. He emphasized the need for a government that prioritizes the interests, dignity, and welfare of ordinary citizens in national development. Dr. M’membe pledged that a Socialist Party government would be committed to restoring dignity to the working class and transforming the economy to benefit millions of Zambians, rather than just a politically connected few, urging peaceful participation in the August 13 elections to demand meaningful change.

Amidst the electoral discourse, a highly sensitive and contentious issue that has garnered public attention is the debate over the burial of former President Edgar Lungu. Mwewa strongly condemned the Toonse Pamodzi Alliance for linking the burial of a former Head of State to the outcome of the election, labeling such a stance as "unthinkable and inhumane." Mwewa questioned the Alliance's plan should they lose, particularly their assertion that Lungu’s remains would be buried immediately if they win. He critically asked what would happen if they lost, and whether the remains would then continue to be kept outside Zambia, calling the treatment of a former Head of State’s remains like a "gamble" a clear sign of a lack of human emotion. This issue underscores the depth of political and social sensitivities in the run-up to the elections.