The Patriotic Front (PF) in Zambia is currently embroiled in a profound internal power struggle and leadership crisis, escalating tensions and undermining the party's coherence ahead of the 2026 general elections. Efforts to reconcile warring factions have collapsed, paving the way for open conflict and disciplinary actions against prominent members.

Attempts by party elders, including Judge Lombe Chibeskunda and former ECZ chairperson Esau Chulu, to mediate among aspiring PF presidential candidates proved futile. A program designed to counsel candidates towards a consensus for a single individual on the PF ballot ultimately failed, with observers noting the significant challenge of any candidate paving the way for another. This failure quickly spiraled into predictable outcomes: disciplinary letters, counter-accusations, tribal insults, witchcraft claims, and open warfare, revealing deep fissures within the opposition party.

Central to this escalating internal conflict are serious disciplinary charges leveled against Brian Mundubile, a senior PF figure and Central Committee Member. In a confidential letter dated January 10, 2026, PF Acting Deputy Secretary General for Administration Celestin Mukandila accused Mundubile of gross indiscipline, insubordination, and multiple constitutional violations. The party alleges that Mundubile deliberately undermined party authority and unity by spreading false and inflammatory claims on social media, asserting that the leadership was plotting his expulsion and blocking his political ambitions. These claims were dismissed as baseless propaganda aimed at damaging the leadership’s credibility and inciting rebellion within the ranks.

Further accusations against Mundubile include the creation of parallel party structures through his campaign team, an act seen as deliberately promoting division within the party and undermining its democratic organizational framework. He is also charged with defying party directives by attending an unauthorized "Tonse Alliance" meeting, which the PF labeled illegal and a direct breach of party regulations. Additionally, Mundubile is accused of recognizing and working with individuals officially dismissed by the party president, an action described as open defiance of constitutional authority and party discipline. The party has issued a stern warning, requiring Mundubile to submit a written exculpatory statement to the Disciplinary Committee within seven days, with failure to respond being interpreted as an acceptance of the charges. This indicates a full-scale political confrontation within PF rather than a routine disciplinary process, with appeal options only available after judgment.

At the heart of PF’s profound psychological crisis lies the unresolved figure of former President Edgar Chagwa Lungu. In the party's belief systems, rituals and succession without proper closure are paramount. The idea that "you cannot replace a leader you have not buried" is deeply held, leading to a pervasive sense of disorder. This belief has fostered a language of ghosts, rituals, curses, and spiritual sabotage circulating freely within the party, with accusations that unseen forces and even the current President are seeking Lungu’s "body for rituals." Seven months after a critical juncture, the party behaves like a movement haunted by an unresolved transition, fighting shadows and burning itself from within.

However, a counter-narrative emerged, rejecting the notion that President Lungu is the cause of the party's confusion. Supporters argue that the blame is being unfairly shifted onto a man who cannot defend himself, especially by those who undermined, insulted, and betrayed him while he was in office, contributing to the 2021 election loss. According to this perspective, after stepping down, President Lungu appointed interim leaders. In early 2022, he personally instructed Brian Mundubile to "run for the PF presidency," based on their collaborative history and Mundubile's dedication to the party, and subsequently urged trusted associates to support him. Mundubile assembled a strong campaign, but faced false accusations of meeting the current Republican Vice President (a relative of Mundubile), funding insults against Lungu, and other fabricated claims. When Lungu was later persuaded to return to active politics, Mundubile, demonstrating loyalty, stepped back, halted all his activities, and instructed his supporters to rally behind Lungu. The propaganda against Mundubile persisted, even falsely alleging he bribed judges in Lungu's eligibility case or was behind a trusted associate of Lungu. This perspective highlights betrayal, dishonesty, and poor leadership choices by current party figures as the true source of disarray, urging them to accept responsibility and call for a conference to choose a new leader, asserting that the confusion is not Lungu's doing.

The practical control of the party is further complicated by the fact that Chabinga holds the legal authority over PF certificates, determining who can stand as a PF candidate. This legal leverage means that without Chabinga's signature, no PF candidate exists, a reality understood by many Members of Parliament (MPs) whose voting patterns now occasionally align with the ruling UPND. The internal power struggle has effectively split PF into two main factions: one that possesses legal authority but lacks political independence, and another that generates considerable "noise" but holds no genuine authority. The "Lubinda-Kambwili-Mundubile axis" itself is unable to find internal consensus, making a meaningful convention impossible, not due to external interference, but due to internal disagreements over who truly constitutes the PF.

Within PF platforms, paranoia has supplanted strategic planning. Accusations against President Hichilema and the UPND are rampant, alleging they are buying candidates, infiltrating elders, controlling courts, and manipulating spirits. Such claims flourish when a party has lost internal trust, transforming every defeat into external sabotage and every disagreement into treason. This environment signals a functional collapse, where PF MPs are drifting, some seeking re-adoption, others considering joining UPND, and some awaiting Chabinga's directives. The arithmetic is clear: two PF factions working against each other provide an inherent advantage to the UPND for the 2026 elections. The party's internal divisions, indecision, superstition, and legal capture mean it is not an impediment to UPND's victory path. Until the "ghost" of Edgar Chagwa Lungu is laid to rest metaphorically, the PF is destined to continue fighting shadows, accusing ghosts, and self-destructing. Success in politics demands organization, clarity, and discipline, qualities currently absent within the Patriotic Front.