Nigeria's political landscape in 2026 is poised for significant upheaval, shaped by prevailing upsets within opposition parties, the ruling party's ability to manage its successes, and the conduct of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). This pre-general election year will see a confluence of actions and inactions from key political figures, including President Bola Tinubu, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, FCT minister Nyesom Wike, and Oyo State governor Seyi Makinde, all setting a heated political tempo that will inevitably influence the outcome of the 2027 general election. The year promises a blend of off-cycle elections, dicey party primaries, and the strategic maneuvers of political actors and institutions.

The electoral calendar kicks off with the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Area Council Elections on February 21, covering Abaji, AMAC, Bwari, Gwagwalada, Kuje, and Kwali. This election is already a battleground, pitting FCT Minister Nyesom Wike against Senator Ireti Kingibe of the ADC, a former Labour Party member. Given the Labour Party's strong performance in the FCT during the 2023 presidential election, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) aims to make a decisive statement. Following these are the Ekiti governorship election on July 20 and the Osun governorship election on August 8, both serving as crucial popularity tests between the APC and the opposition coalition.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will face intense scrutiny as it oversees these critical elections. Prof. Joash Amupitan, the INEC chairman, will undergo his first true test as the head of the electoral umpire, having barely assumed office before the Anambra election. Public confidence in state institutions, particularly among the opposition, remains low, making INEC's management of the electoral process, including internal party wranglings and legal challenges, a key point of interest.

The Nigerian judiciary continues to bear a significant burden, grappling with a plethora of political cases, including election disputes and thorny party leadership tussles. Cases from the Labour Party, SDP, PDP, and ADC have inundated the courts, with some, particularly those involving the PDP and ADC, still pending. This trend is expected to continue, with an anticipation of more such cases throughout 2026.

For the ruling APC, managing its expanded successes and diverse membership, which includes numerous governors and lawmakers, will be a critical spectacle. President Tinubu's political sagacity will be challenged as he navigates governance responsibilities while balancing varied political interests within the party. The APC leadership is also expected to contend with conflicting interests in states where governors and influential members, such as ministers or federal lawmakers, are engaged in supremacy battles. According to Prof. Hassan Saliu of the Nigeria Political Scientists Association, while the APC remains dominant and attracts defectors, it must address economic challenges and be vigilant against internal sabotage to maintain peace and maximize its viability.

The opposition ADC faces its own trials, needing to demonstrate its strength beyond criticizing incumbent policies. Its ability to organize, broaden its public appeal, and skillfully manage the significant egos and ambitions of key members like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Chibuike Amaechi will be closely watched. These three chieftains have declared their presidential intentions, making the party's national leadership, under Senator David Mark, crucial in managing these aspirations and the interests of other ambitious politicians like el-Rufai and Tambuwal. The party's electoral viability will be tested in the FCT, Ekiti, and Osun elections, following what was described as a poor outing in last year's Anambra by-elections. Prof. Saliu suggests that for the ADC, connecting with ordinary Nigerians and conducting seamless primaries are essential to capitalize on its bright chances, cautioning against writing off any party at this juncture.

Internal wrangling within the PDP constitutes another major issue, with the legal dispute over its national leadership likely to be decided this year. Regardless of the outcome, the entrenched ego-battle between FCT Minister Nyesom Wike and Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde, who lead the party's two warring camps, is expected to persist.

Several states are anticipated to be political hotspots. In Rivers State, the power play between Wike and Governor Siminalayi Fubara appears to have re-escalated, despite presidential intervention. Fresh verbal jabs signal a likely