Zambia's Bold IMF Shift: New Growth Focus Amidst Political Scrutiny!

Published 1 day ago5 minute read
Pelumi Ilesanmi
Pelumi Ilesanmi
Zambia's Bold IMF Shift: New Growth Focus Amidst Political Scrutiny!

Zambia has been actively engaged with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on critical economic policy responses, aiming to address its fiscal challenges and steer towards sustainable growth. In April 2019, then Minister of Finance Margaret Mwanakatwe, following an IMF Article IV Mission, announced agreements on several immediate policy actions. These included the front-loading of fiscal adjustments, a concerted effort to reduce debt accumulation, addressing the persistent challenge of domestic arrears, and enhancing external buffers. The government affirmed its commitment to protecting expenditure in crucial social sectors, aligning with a shared vision to accelerate reforms designed to improve the livelihoods of the Zambian people. During this period, the fiscal landscape for 2018 indicated a deficit of 7.5 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), an external debt stock of US $10.05 billion, domestic debt at K58 billion, guarantees totaling US $1.2 billion, and domestic arrears amounting to K15.6 billion. This pushed the total debt as a percentage of GDP for 2018 to 73 percent. Government also acknowledged a projected slowdown in growth for 2019, primarily due to drought impacts on the agricultural sector and anticipated higher inflation. In response, the Bank of Zambia committed to utilizing various monetary policy instruments to maintain inflation within the set band of 6 to 8 percent, while broader adjustment and control measures were to be implemented expeditiously to keep the deficit within the 2019 budget target and curb debt accumulation.

More recently, Zambia, a nation of 22 million, has successfully concluded the sixth and final review of its IMF-backed Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program, which commenced in 2022. Minister of Finance Situmbeko Musokotwane confirmed that the country has opted against a previously considered one-year extension of the existing facility, choosing instead to transition directly into a new, full-term program aligned with its medium-term development priorities. This decision signifies a strategic shift in emphasis rather than a break from the Fund, reflecting the government's confidence in the successful completion of the current program and its readiness to enter a new phase focused on accelerating growth. A brief technical extension from November 2025 to January 2026 was merely to allow for performance assessment before the IMF Executive Board's consideration. Zambia has commendably completed all program reviews without interruption, with a staff-level agreement on the final review reached in the preceding month. All quantitative targets and structural benchmarks were met, leading to significant macroeconomic stabilization after years of fiscal stress. Notably, primary fiscal surpluses have exceeded 2% of GDP, which has substantially strengthened public finances and restored confidence among creditors and investors. These reforms have also been instrumental in progressing Zambia’s complex external debt restructuring and bolstering its resilience to economic shocks. Musokotwane underscored that policy discipline was crucial in enabling the economy to benefit from a surge in copper prices, noting that without revived mining output and operational reforms, the gains from higher prices would have been limited.

Under the prospective successor arrangement, Zambia intends to maintain its robust engagement with the IMF while broadening the reform agenda beyond mere stabilization. Future discussions are expected to prioritize growth-oriented structural reforms, investment mobilization, value addition initiatives, and job creation, all while continuing to address debt sustainability. The government has affirmed its commitment to preserving policy continuity during this transition, through strict adherence to the national budget, disciplined borrowing practices, and expenditure maintained within parliamentary limits. Zambia will also continue its routine engagement with the Fund through regular Article IV consultations and technical support. Minister Musokotwane reiterated the government's unwavering commitment to prudent fiscal management, transparent utilization of public resources, and stronger domestic revenue mobilization, emphatically stressing that these reforms are nationally owned and not externally imposed. He acknowledged the crucial backing for this reform agenda from President Hakainde Hichilema, the Cabinet, Parliament, and various economic institutions. For the investor community, this strategic shift signals a transition from crisis management towards a phase where macroeconomic stability can be effectively leveraged for sustained economic growth.

However, this governmental approach has not been without its critics. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party, led by Kasonde Mwenda, has strongly condemned the UPND government's decision to pursue another loan program with the International Monetary Fund. The EFF argues that this move is detrimental, pushing Zambia further down a path of deeper debt, harsher austerity measures, and an erosion of its economic sovereignty. Reuters reported on January 8, 2026, that the Zambian government had quietly resolved to replace the current IMF Extended Credit Facility with a new program without adequately informing its citizens, who would ultimately bear the brunt of its conditions. Mwenda described this decision as "nothing short of economic betrayal," reminding Zambians of the already familiar adverse effects of IMF-backed reforms, which he linked to persistent electricity shortages, crippling load-shedding, austerity measures disproportionately burdening the poor and working class, shrinking public services, and a continuously rising cost of living. Mwenda accused the UPND administration of governing on behalf of "Washington, foreign creditors, and multinational mining interests" instead of prioritizing Zambia's development. He specifically cited Statutory Instrument No. 47, enacted under alleged IMF pressure, which waived the export tax on copper concentrate. Mwenda argued that this effectively gave away Zambia’s mineral wealth "for nothing," even amidst surging global copper prices, without delivering any meaningful benefits such as price relief, jobs, or empowerment for citizens, labeling it "economic colonization." He warned that a new five-year IMF program would lead to more debt, deeper austerity, further surrender of national minerals and policy, and a future of permanent dependency and poverty. Mwenda concluded by urging Zambians to reject this "cycle of suffering and deception" and to avoid re-electing the UPND in the upcoming General Elections, asserting that President Hichilema and his party allegedly lack an independent development vision, consistently resorting to "hand[ing] the country to the IMF" as a solution to national challenges.

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