British homes will face an urgent need for air conditioning to withstand the severe impacts of predicted global heating, as traditional measures like drawing curtains, opening windows, and planting trees for shade are unlikely to be sufficient. This stark warning comes from the government’s climate advisers, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), which published a major report on adapting to the impacts of global heating.

The CCC has strongly recommended that air conditioning be installed in all care homes and hospitals within the next 10 years, and in all schools within 25 years. Furthermore, the advisers urged the government to set a maximum temperature for both indoor and outdoor working environments. The UK must prepare for an anticipated 2C of global heating by 2050, as efforts to limit temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels under the Paris Agreement appear likely to fail.

The projections for extreme heat are alarming. By 2050, heatwaves are expected to exceed 40C in all parts of the UK, with periods of hot weather becoming longer. This could lead to an additional 10,000 heat-related deaths annually. Approximately nine out of ten UK homes are likely to overheat. Julia King, chair of the CCC’s adaptation subcommittee, emphasized that extreme heat poses the most immediate risk to life among the many climate threats detailed in the report. She stated, “Extreme heat is certainly the most deadly of the climate impacts on the UK, so we need to see cooling rolled out at scale.” King underlined the necessity of protecting the most vulnerable populations in hospitals, care homes, and schools, noting that while shading will help, air conditioning will often be required.

The urgency of implementing cooling measures is underscored by recent events; in 2022, temperatures above 40C resulted in approximately 3,000 excess deaths, indicating that such periods of extreme heat are becoming “the new normal.” While the report suggested that people could opt for one cool room during heatwaves rather than installing air conditioning everywhere, the energy intensity of current systems is a concern, accounting for about 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions. However, more efficient modern systems can utilize heat pumps, which are already subsidized by the government for replacing gas boilers, though they are rarely installed for cooling purposes at present. Sam Alvis, head of energy security at the IPPR thinktank, advocated for integrating solar panels with air conditioning, highlighting how this pairing can efficiently match energy supply and demand, as air conditioning is primarily needed during hot periods when solar generation is high.

Beyond extreme heat, the CCC report outlines a range of other escalating climate threats facing the UK. Without immediate action, the 7 million UK properties currently at risk of flooding could increase by 40% by 2050, and peak river flows could be 45% higher. Sea levels are projected to rise by 20cm to 45cm, endangering coastal areas, and heavy rainfall intensity could increase by 60%. By the end of the century, if temperatures rise by 4C, storm surges that currently occur once every 100 years would become annual occurrences. The report cautions that natural flood defenses, such as wetlands and