The United Kingdom is projected to experience a significant demographic shift, with experts from the left-leaning think tank Resolution Foundation warning that deaths are set to outnumber births for the first time. Gregory Thwaites, the think tank's research director, suggests that 2026 could mark the beginning of a 'new normal' where this trend becomes consistent. He attributes this phenomenon to 'extremely low fertility and not especially high deaths'.

Historically, births have consistently outnumbered deaths in the UK for most of the last century, with notable exceptions in 1976, the pandemic year 2020, and 2023. However, recent data has shown a concerning trend: births only narrowly surpassed deaths in 2024, and an even narrower margin is predicted for 2025. The Resolution Foundation further warns that by the mid-2040s, deaths could exceed births by as much as 100,000 annually.

A primary driver of this shift is the UK's plummeting birth rate, which has fallen dramatically from three children per woman in the 1960s to just 1.4 last year. This trend is corroborated by stark figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which revealed that the fertility rate in England and Wales dropped to 1.41 in 2024, marking the lowest figure since records began in 1938. For a population to maintain its size without relying on immigration, a 'replacement' level fertility rate of 2.1 is required; some scientists even suggest a target of 2.7 to avoid extinction. Critically, not a single one of the over 320 authorities in England and Wales currently meets this replacement level.

Such a demographic reversal poses serious challenges for the UK's public finances. A shrinking working-age population will bear the increasing burden of supporting a growing older demographic. While a fall in the number of children might lead to some savings in education spending, the costs associated with pensions and healthcare for an aging population are already on the rise. Ruth Curtice, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, highlighted that this shift will prompt 'hard questions for the future of our public services and tax revenues needed to fund them in an aging society'.

The UK's population has grown significantly, from 64.6 million in 2014 to 69.3 million in mid-2025, with immigration accounting for the majority of this increase. Mr. Thwaites emphasized that without a rise in net migration to bolster the working-age population, Britons could face the threat of continuously rising taxes. He stated that any future population growth 'will have to come from immigration because there's no increase in birth over deaths'.

Experts attribute the declining fertility trend to several factors. These include women increasingly focusing on education and careers, leading couples to delay having children until later in life. Additionally, lifestyle factors, such as the rising prevalence of obesity in many countries, are also thought to have a negative impact on fertility rates. This phenomenon has been dubbed the 'greatest risk to the future of civilisation' by figures like Elon Musk, underscoring the profound implications of this demographic shift.