Tinubu's Bold Reforms Ignite Nigeria's Economy, Propelling Major Companies to Trillion-Naira Heights

Nigeria’s economy has made a decisive shift from acute macroeconomic distress to a more stable and increasingly resilient footing, according to the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS). This transformation, particularly evident in the first half of 2026 (H1 2026), is largely attributed to comprehensive economic reforms initiated by President Bola Tinubu’s administration since May 2023. These reforms have translated into stronger corporate earnings, improved government revenue, enhanced investor confidence, and a revitalized oil and gas sector.

A review of ten major quoted companies reveals a combined revenue of N14.4 trillion and a profit before tax (PBT) of N4.99 trillion in H1 2026. This represents a significant improvement over the corresponding period in 2025, when these companies collectively posted N10.59 trillion in revenue and N2.99 trillion in PBT, indicating a 66.7 percent increase in profit. The NRS noted that this improved corporate performance reflects a more stable macroeconomic environment, enhanced market efficiency, and stronger investor confidence, validating the country's economic recovery.

Key companies driving this corporate earnings growth include MTN Nigeria Communications Plc, which led with N2.99 trillion in revenue (a 25 percent increase from N2.38 trillion in H1 2025) and N1.09 trillion PBT (up 75.2 percent). Dangote Cement Plc reported N2.51 trillion in revenue (up 21.4 percent) and N981 billion PBT. Seplat Energy Plc recorded N2.5 trillion revenue (up 16.5 percent) and N700 billion PBT (up 54.2 percent). Aradel Holdings Plc showed remarkable growth, with revenue soaring to N2.49 trillion from N368.08 billion (a 576.9 percent increase) and PBT reaching N752 billion (up 293.7 percent). Other companies like Nigerian Breweries, BUA Foods, BUA Cement, HBM Nigeria Conglomerate, and Nestlé Nigeria also experienced notable revenue increases, although Transcorp saw a decline.

The far-reaching economic reforms underpinning this turnaround include the removal of petrol subsidy, unification of the foreign exchange market, tighter monetary management by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), tax reforms, and measures aimed at restoring investor confidence and improving fiscal sustainability. Dr. Zacch Adedeji, Executive Chairman of the NRS, robustly defended these reforms, stating that maintaining the petrol subsidy would have escalated its annual cost to N53 trillion and potentially deteriorated the naira-dollar exchange rate to N3,500. He emphasized that these painful but necessary adjustments addressed longstanding structural weaknesses: an unsustainable fuel subsidy, a fragmented and opaque exchange-rate system, an underperforming oil sector, and a narrow tax base.

Government revenue streams have also seen substantial improvements. Tax collections rose from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N21 trillion in 2024 and N28.3 trillion in 2025, with N27.1 trillion collected in the first eight months of 2026. This pushed the tax-to-GDP ratio to 13 percent from 10.3 percent in 2023, with a government target of 18 percent. Revenue growth is attributed to the digitalization of tax administration, including the national e-invoicing system for large taxpayers, and the implementation of four new tax laws effective January 1, 2026 (Nigeria Tax Act, Nigeria Tax Administration Act, Nigeria Revenue Service Establishment Act, and Joint Tax Board Establishment Act). The transformation of the former Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) into the NRS has also expanded the revenue consolidation framework by integrating non-tax revenue streams. Non-oil sources now account for 76 percent of total collections, a significant step towards diversifying government revenue. Furthermore, monthly allocations to the Federation Account surged by 532 percent, from N711 billion in May 2023 to N4.5 trillion in July 2026, strengthening state government finances.

The oil and gas sector has witnessed a significant turnaround. Crude oil production recovered to approximately 1.73 million barrels per day (bpd) by August 2026, equivalent to 104 percent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota, up from 1.2-1.3 million bpd around the start of the reform period. This recovery is credited to intensified security operations against pipeline vandalism and crude theft, alongside the sustained implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which has improved fiscal and regulatory certainty for upstream operators. Perhaps more remarkably, domestic refining capacity has soared from about 30,000 bpd in May 2023 to approximately 700,000 bpd by mid-2026. Consequently, about 90 percent of domestic petrol supply is now met through local refining, and diesel imports fell to zero by May 2026. The Dangote Refinery has been central to this shift, supported by the government’s crude-for-naira arrangement with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), which has reduced dollar demand for fuel imports. Major upstream transactions, such as Aradel's involvement in Shell Petroleum Development Company asset acquisition and Seplat's acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited, further bolster long-term growth prospects.

Beyond specific sectors, broader macroeconomic stability has improved. Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 35.5 percent in 2025 to 32.3 percent in 2026, remaining below the IMF’s 55 percent risk threshold, largely due to nominal GDP growth outpacing debt accumulation. Investor confidence is reflected in the oversubscription of Nigeria’s November 2025 Eurobond by 12 times. The recapitalization of the banking sector has strengthened the financial system’s capacity to provide large-scale corporate financing, improving businesses' access to capital. These combined monetary, fiscal, tax, and structural reforms have created a more predictable operating environment, particularly for capital-intensive and export-oriented companies.

Acknowledging the initial pain caused by the reforms, including high inflation and increased cost of living, Dr. Adedeji emphasized that the economy has moved from a crisis-management phase to consolidation. He highlighted improved foreign reserves, which can now cover about 10 months of imports, partly due to reduced petrol imports. He also pointed to government social interventions like student loans (over N303 billion to more than one million students) and CreditCorp, demonstrating efforts to expand opportunities and the tax base, rather than merely extracting revenue. While recognizing that the benefits may not yet fully translate into improved living standards for all citizens, the NRS chairman argued that the government should be judged by the progress made from the critical conditions inherited in May 2023. He urged Nigerians to consolidate on the reforms, arguing that reversing them would risk a return to unsustainable economic distortions. The ultimate goal, he maintained, is a more productive economy capable of generating jobs, increasing incomes, and improving household welfare.