Billionaire technocrat Elon Musk is poised to receive a substantial payout and an increased share in Tesla, regardless of whether he achieves the most challenging targets outlined in his ambitious $1 trillion pay package. This scenario, detailed in a Fortune report, suggests that while Musk stands to gain significantly, Tesla's shareholders might find themselves with less favorable returns.

Approved on November 6, 2025, this colossal compensation package has the potential to make Elon Musk the world's first-ever trillionaire. The report emphasizes that even if he doesn't fully achieve the entire 13-figure payout, he is still expected to take home a considerable sum. The package is ingeniously structured into 12 tiers, each designed to 'unlock' as the Tesla chief executive achieves specific milestones. A critical 'quirk' in this structure is that the lowest tiers are easily achievable. Once these lower tiers are unlocked, they effectively guarantee Musk a significant payout, irrespective of whether the more difficult, higher targets are met.

The payout structure for Elon Musk's compensation is built around a series of performance milestones spread across 12 valuation and operational targets over a 10-year period. On the financial front, Tesla is required to first achieve a market capitalization of $2 trillion, with subsequent growth targets up to $8.5 trillion in tranches of $500 billion each over the full duration. Additionally, EBITDA tiers must be reached, ranging from $50 billion to $400 billion. For the operational goals, key sales targets include deliveries of Tesla cars, the expansion of robotaxi fleets, the deployment of humanoid robots, and the successful sale of self-driving software.

Each time Elon Musk reaches one of these targets, he will receive 35.312 million shares, which equates to approximately a 1% increase in his Tesla restricted stock, adding to his current 16% stake. Should he achieve all targets, the total payout would amount to 424 million shares, representing a stock value of $1 trillion. The vesting of these shares is divided into two periods: those achieved in the first five years, extending until early 2033, and those in the later five years, lasting until late 2035.

The odds of Elon Musk reaching all of these ambitious targets are considered low, according to the report. For instance, one particularly challenging goal mandates the robotaxi fleet to reach 1 million units, a stark contrast to the company's current count of only 2,000 on the road. Furthermore, in terms of stock valuation, hitting the second-highest mark of $2.5 trillion would necessitate an 85% jump in the company's stock price over 10 years, which is deemed a formidable challenge. However, the report also highlights that the lower targets are 'easy' to achieve, ensuring Musk will still secure substantial earnings. For example, he is required to sell a cumulative 20 million Tesla vehicles over 10 years; with 8 million already sold, the effective remaining requirement is 12 million. Given Tesla's delivery of 1.9 million cars in the past four quarters, averaging 2 million cars annually, this goal could be met by year six with only a minimal increase in sales rate. Another accessible target involves taking the company's valuation to $2 trillion. Musk has previously demonstrated an ability to boost the stock by generating expectations, particularly around initiatives like robotaxis and full self-driving technology. To lock in this particular payout, he simply needs to maintain the average valuation at or above $2 trillion for six months, with specific conditions for the last 30 days.

From the perspective of Tesla shareholders, the report suggests they have the most to lose. On average, Elon Musk is projected to net a $900 billion payout, translating to an estimated $90 million annually. Shareholders, conversely, are expected to gain a mere 5.9% annually, with the valuation of their shares increasing from $334 to $585 over the 10-year period. This payout dwarfs the compensation received by other prominent executives; for comparison, Amazon's Andy Jassy made $40 million in a year, Goldman Sachs' Jamie Dimon $39 million, Nvidia's Jensen Huang $34 million, Meta's Mark Zuckerberg $27.2 million, Microsoft's Satya Nadella $79 million, Alphabet's Sundar Pichai $10.7 million, and Apple's Tim Cook $75 million. Even in a worst-case performance scenario for Musk, where Tesla shares end at a market cap of $1.8 trillion or below the initial $2 trillion valuation milestone, he would still make an astonishing $727 million. In such a situation, shareholders would only see returns that barely manage to beat inflation.