Osun's Political Earthquake: Adeleke's Win, Rigging Debates, and Future Implications

Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party has been re-elected for a second four-year term in the Osun State governorship election, a victory that has drawn significant reactions and analyses regarding its implications for Nigerian democracy. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Adeleke the winner after he polled 511,067 votes, defeating his closest rival, Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who secured 444,815 votes. Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) came a distant third with 17,180 votes. This outcome marks an improvement over Adeleke's 2022 performance, where his winning margin was 28,344 votes; this time, it widened to 66,252 votes, and he won in 19 out of 30 local government areas, compared to 17 in 2022.

Following his re-election, former President Olusegun Obasanjo congratulated Governor Adeleke, urging him to continue delivering good governance and meeting the needs of his people. Obasanjo made this call during a congratulatory visit to Adeleke at his country home in Ede, praying for further success and commitment to democratic dividends. In response, Adeleke expressed gratitude to God and the people of Osun, pledging to continue serving them faithfully and promising never to disappoint those who made his victory possible. He also commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his support in ensuring a free and fair election, reaffirming his earlier endorsement of Tinubu for a second term in the 2027 presidential election.

The All Progressives Congress (APC) has been urged to confront the reasons behind its defeat rather than engage in blame games. Dayo Israel, the party’s National Youth Leader, stated that the result should serve as a warning ahead of the 2027 general elections, emphasizing that electoral victories are not secured through elite calculations, political structures, or assumptions about voters. Israel acknowledged the disappointment within the APC but stressed the importance of respecting the electorate's decision and undertaking an honest assessment. He praised President Tinubu for allowing the Osun electorate to exercise its franchise without deploying federal powers to influence the outcome in favor of the APC, arguing that Tinubu's approach demonstrated a willingness to accept electoral outcomes, even when they did not favor the ruling party. Israel stated that Tinubu 'may have lost Osun for the APC, but he won something larger for Nigeria: another opportunity to demonstrate that the vote of the Nigerian people must matter.'

Analysts point to several factors that contributed to Adeleke's victory. His administration's focus on workers' welfare, including prompt payment of salaries and pensions, garnered significant support from civil servants. While some noted a concentration of infrastructural development in his hometown of Ede, the overall impact was positive. Crucially, divisions within the APC played a significant role, particularly the perceived imposition of Bola Oyebamiji as the candidate, sidelining influential aspirants like former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola and Senator Iyiola Omisore. Although many aggrieved aspirants remained within the APC, their supporters often aligned with Adeleke. The defection of former Secretary to Osun State Government, Alhaji Moshood Adeoti, from ADC to Accord, further boosted Adeleke’s campaign. Additionally, the energetic campaign efforts of his nephew, Davido, were credited with mobilizing youth and public sympathy against what was termed 'Federal Might.' Dayo Israel argued that Adeleke's public dancing and singing, often dismissed by opponents, were in fact a 'political language' that enabled him to establish an emotional connection with voters and communicate accessibility, a factor underestimated by many.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) and its candidate, Najeem Salaam, came in third, securing only 17,180 votes. Analysts attributed this to the party's lack of strong national interest and limited resources, allowing the Accord Party and APC to dominate the scene. ADC spokesperson Seun Abosede also cited financial issues and vote-buying as factors, adding that the people of Osun State seemed to reject the neoliberal policies of the Tinubu administration.

The election also highlighted 'losers without ballot' – prominent political figures whose influence and efforts for the APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, ultimately failed. These included President Bola Tinubu, despite his efforts to rally APC leaders and his public stance of neutrality. Osun State, widely considered Tinubu’s ancestral home, remained with the opposition. Former Governor Gboyega Oyetola, who was defeated by Adeleke in 2022, had reportedly backed Oyebamiji to 'take his pound of flesh' but failed. Other APC governors, such as Edo State Governor Monday Okpebholo, Imo Governor Hope Uzodimma, and Kwara State Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, who actively campaigned against Adeleke, also saw their efforts prove futile. Notably, former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, despite openly endorsing Oyebamiji, saw the Accord Party win his polling unit in Okuku, Odo-Otin LGA. Senator Francis Adenigba Fadahunsi, representing Osun East, also failed to secure a statewide victory for his party, despite delivering his own polling unit.

Political analysts offered various perspectives on the election's outcome. Professor of Political Economy, Pat Utomi, described Adeleke's victory as evidence that the will of the electorate can overcome attempts at electoral manipulation, emphasizing that massive turnout and a fighting spirit are crucial for saving democracy. Professor Olaleye Komolafe of Political Science argued that Adeleke's victory was largely sealed long before election day due to internal crises within the APC, specifically the party's decision to impose a candidate while sidelining influential aspirants. Asiwaju Kunle Kalejaye, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, noted that Adeleke’s triumph, despite strong political forces mobilized against him, demonstrated that public dissatisfaction with economic conditions does not automatically translate into the defeat of an incumbent; instead, party structure, grassroots mobilization, and voter sentiment can outweigh anger expressed on social media. Political scientist Prof. Emmanuel Ojo suggested that the relatively peaceful conduct of the Osun poll was largely due to it being an off-cycle election, allowing security agencies to concentrate resources effectively, though he cautioned against expecting the same for the much larger 2027 general elections.

Concerns about electoral conduct were also raised. While the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) machines generally worked well, instances of delays were observed. Yiaga Africa, a prominent election observation group, commended INEC for a credible election but urged a comprehensive post-election technical audit of BVAS devices, effective training for ad hoc officials, and joint security deployment for future elections. The Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) called on INEC, EFCC, and ICPC to investigate reported cases of vote-buying, financial inducement, illegal election financing, voter intimidation, violence, and misuse of public resources. Preliminary reports from the EU Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria Election Observation Hub (EU-SDGN EOH) recorded 323 electoral offenses, including 103 cases of vote trading and 28 cases of inducement of polling and security officials.

The Osun election is widely seen as a template for the 2027 general elections. A political coalition movement, the G100, stated that Adeleke's re-election provides opposition parties with a strategy for defeating the ruling party by consolidating strengths behind viable candidates and setting aside individual ambitions. Former Vice President Atiku, of the African Democratic Congress, affirmed that the outcome reflected the democratic wishes of the people and served as an example of how collective resolve can protect the ballot against rigging, calling it a