Mali is currently grappling with a profound security and socio-economic crisis, driven by the Al-Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM). Far from attempting a direct territorial takeover, JNIM appears to be executing a sophisticated strategy of regime implosion, aiming to make life impossible for Malians and hasten the collapse of the state. This critical situation is not isolated, as neighboring AES countries, Burkina Faso and Niger, face similar escalating insecurity, raising fears that the crisis could engulf not only the Sahelian states but also the Gulf of Guinea countries, demanding urgent regional intervention.

The severity of JNIM's updated modus operandi was starkly illustrated by the recent execution of Mariam Cisse, a twenty-year-old social influencer, in her hometown of Tonka near Timbuktu. After being arrested by jihadists while creating content, she was publicly executed for allegedly supporting the military junta, with no Malian security forces present to intervene. This incident represents a significant shift in terrorist tactics, designed to instill collective shock and trauma. Beyond such targeted acts, JNIM has implemented a crippling fuel blockade, effectively encircling Bamako, the capital city with three million inhabitants. This blockade, initiated two months ago, has forced government schools to close, prevented agricultural harvesting in several regions, and led to the burning of over 100 fuel tankers attempting to reach Bamako via the Dakar-Bamako route. Subsequent attempts to source fuel from Cote d'Ivoire and Niamey were also thwarted, exacerbating the fuel scarcity, causing businesses to close, and driving rampant inflation due to lack of supplies. The state's revenue, heavily reliant on fuel tariffs (40%), is plummeting, pushing Mali towards bankruptcy, with even mining operations ceasing due to lack of fuel.

This dire reality stands in stark contrast to the promises made by the military junta, led by Assimi Goita, following its coup d'état in August 2020. The junta pledged to end terrorism, establish security, dismantle French neo-colonialism, and usher in development and full sovereignty. Consequently, French forces and the United Nations were expelled from the country. However, five years later, insecurity has demonstrably worsened, with JNIM insurgents quietly taking over villages, towns, and cities. While they avoid direct administrative control, their actions effectively demonstrate the government's impotence, fostering a narrative that they, the insurgents, possess true power, rendering the military useless. The state is crumbling, poverty is deepening, hunger is spreading, and many Malians are fleeing to Cote d'Ivoire, highlighting the catastrophic failure of the junta's core justification for seizing power.

The current crisis echoes a similar period in 2012 when jihadists initially aimed to capture the entire country, starting from the north. They seized territories, established Sharia law, and destroyed cultural heritage sites like Sufi libraries and mausoleums. The inability of ECOWAS to deploy an effective standby force then compelled Mali to seek French military intervention. The French operation, commencing in January 2013, halted the jihadist advance and recaptured major towns, effectively saving Bamako. However, historical accounts suggest a contentious relationship, with France reportedly refusing to involve the Malian army in Kidal and potentially making deals with the Tuareg MNLA, exposing what some perceived as a hidden French agenda. Almost a decade later, the French were expelled, only for the security situation to deteriorate further.

Domestically, the junta maintains tight political repression, dismissing exiled opposition figures as French-orchestrated