Makerfield By-election Heats Up: Immigration, Misinformation, and Battle for Votes Define Crucial Race

The Makerfield by-election, triggered by the sudden resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons on May 14 to potentially pave the way for Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, has become a focal point in UK politics, with its outcome possibly shaping the national political scene for years to come. The crunch vote, scheduled for Thursday, June 18, involves 14 candidates. While Labour's Andy Burnham and Reform UK's Rob Kenyon are considered frontrunners, the emerging Restore party has also garnered significant attention, despite controversy surrounding its candidate's public presence.

Restore, a party established in June 2025 and officially registered in March of this year, has positioned itself as a challenger to Reform UK. In Makerfield, Rupert Lowe's party is polling around five to seven percent, which is notable for a relatively new political entity. However, the party's candidate, local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd, has remained largely out of public sight. The Manchester Evening News (MEN) repeatedly sought an interview and invited her to hustings events since May 19, without success. Other media organizations reportedly faced similar struggles, with a video showing a Telegraph journalist attempting to question Ms. Shepherd during campaigning alongside Mr. Lowe, with the request being declined. She appears to have given only one substantial media interview, to political channel Vox Populi. Restore's leader, Rupert Lowe, expressed strong exception to his candidate not being invited on the BBC's Question Time, which featured five candidates including Labour's Andy Burnham and Reform's Rob Kenyon. The BBC justified its selection based on 'past and current electoral support'.

Despite the media's difficulty in accessing Ms. Shepherd, some Restore supporters defended her. Lisa Heyes, manager of Bryn Community Club – a focal point for Restore's operation in Makerfield – stated that Ms. Shepherd is actively campaigning, meeting canvassers, and engaging with people, contrary to claims of her being a 'no-show'. Other volunteers, like Joanna Lapniewski, had not personally seen Ms. Shepherd but heard positive accounts. Mark, from Bolton, a former Reform voter disillusioned with mainstream politics, voiced his support for Restore, while software engineer Alex Graham traveled from Surrey, calling Restore a 'positive choice', driven by concerns over immigration levels.

The by-election's main battle is between Labour's Andy Burnham and Reform UK's Rob Kenyon. Polling data from Opinium, conducted between June 3 and 11, placed Burnham in the lead with 46%, closely followed by Kenyon at 41%. Restore polled at 7%, Conservatives at 3%, Green at 2%, and Liberal Democrats at 1%. Betting odds from various sites like Bet365, William Hill, Betfred, and Ladbrokes consistently show Labour as the strong favourite, with Reform trailing, and Restore at longer odds. However, the five-point gap between Burnham and Kenyon is within the poll's margin of error, indicating a highly competitive race.

Controversies have marked the campaign. Rob Kenyon's past social media posts, described as 'misogynistic', resurfaced, leading to TV personality Carol Vorderman pleading with Makerfield women not to vote for him. Reform leader Nigel Farage defended Kenyon, dismissing the comments as 'laddish things' from a decade ago, taken out of context. Voters' decisions are also influenced by candidate's perceived local connection and sincerity. Andy Burnham, who serves as the mayor of Greater Manchester, has faced criticism for potentially using the Makerfield constituency as a 'stepping stone' for a Labour leadership challenge and a move to Downing Street. Lifelong Ashtonian Paul Tushingham expressed disappointment at Makerfield being used as a 'political pawn', and former Conservative councillor Dave Culshaw criticized Burnham's financial record and alleged lack of responsiveness as an MP. Conversely, some voters, like social worker Nicola Clancy, expressed strong support for Burnham, citing his local shopping habits and public service understanding. Michael Winstanley, the Conservative candidate, was perceived as more sincere by some voters after his performance on BBC Question Time.

A critical issue dominating the Makerfield by-election discourse is the housing crisis and its relationship with immigration in Wigan. Reform UK's Rob Kenyon and Green's Sarah Wakefield clashed on Question Time, with Kenyon attributing housing demand to immigration, while Wakefield dismissed this as 'wild'. Data from Wigan, however, provides a more nuanced picture. Between 2011 and 2021, the number of households increased by 6,714, while available homes grew by 8,598, showing an increase in housing stock that outpaced household growth. Despite this, the social housing waiting list surged from 3,591 in 2012 to a peak of 12,018 in 2023, before dropping to 10,295 in March 2025. Wigan Council has built over 2,100 affordable homes since 2019, but house prices for first-time buyers are rising, although Wigan remains more affordable than the North West and UK averages.

The issue of Houses of Multiple Occupation (HMOs) and asylum seekers has also been raised. In July 2025, Wigan Council implemented a policy requiring new HMO applications to go through planning approval due to an increase in numbers. While 190 HMOs have been licensed from 2022 to present, only 55 out of 211 licensed HMOs in November 2025 were used for asylum seekers, representing a mere 0.03% of homes in the borough. Serco, the government contractor, operates around 300 properties for asylum seeker housing in the borough, with an agreement since 2023 that no further properties will be procured in Wigan. The council's new housing strategy and social housing allocations policy include strengthened 'local connection rules' requiring applicants to have lived in Wigan for at least three years.

Regarding migration, between 2012 and 2024, Wigan's population increased by an estimated 26,813, with net international migration accounting for 9,642 (nearly 36%) of this growth. A significant spike in international migration occurred between 2021 and 2022, jumping from 228 to 3,079, aligning with a national trend. This period also coincided with an increase in the housing waiting list, though asylum seekers are not eligible for council housing or benefits while their claims are pending. Interestingly, internal migration from other parts of the UK also significantly contributed to population growth, with 8,393 people moving to Wigan from elsewhere in the UK between 2022 and 2024, exceeding international migration figures for the same period. While up-to-date figures for 2026 are limited, overall UK migration has almost halved since 2024. This complex data suggests that the housing situation is far more intricate than simple political soundbites suggest.

As polling day approaches, widespread political apathy is evident in Ashton, with many voters expressing distrust in politicians. The eventual winner of the Makerfield by-election, whether it be Andy Burnham, Rob Kenyon, or another candidate from the extensive list, faces the challenge of proving their worth to a skeptical electorate. The full list of candidates includes Jake Austin (Liberal Democrats), Count Binface (Count Binface Party), Andy Burnham (Labour and Co-operative Party), Dan Clarke (Libertarian Party), John Dyer (Independent), Ed Gemmell (Climate Party), Paul Gould (Independent), Howling Laud Hope (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party), Robert Kenyon (Reform UK), Rob Pownall (Independent), Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain), Sarah Wakefield (Green Party), Peter Ward (Rejoin EU), and Michael Winstanley (Conservative and Unionist Party).