Madagascar is currently experiencing widespread and escalating anti-government protests, with a significant development being the refusal of certain military factions to take action against demonstrators. Fresh youth-led demonstrations, which erupted on September 25, 2025, have drawn large crowds in the capital Antananarivo, initially fueled by anger over power and water shortages, but evolving into a broader movement demanding constitutional reforms and the resignation of President Andry Rajoelina. These protests reached a critical point when soldiers joined thousands of protestors in Antananarivo, openly defying orders to shoot demonstrators.

On Saturday, October 8, 2025, police used stun grenades and tear gas to try to disperse demonstrators near the Lake Anosy area. However, soldiers arrived at the scene and were met with cheers from protestors, some of whom were waving Malagasy flags and expressing gratitude. Earlier that day, at an army barracks in the Soanierana district on the outskirts of the city, soldiers had announced their intention not to act against protestors. In a video posted on social media, they urged military, gendarmes, and police to unite, refuse payment to shoot citizens, and prevent aircraft from taking off from the airport. They explicitly instructed comrades to disregard superiors' orders to fire on protestors, advising them instead to point their weapons at those issuing such commands, emphasizing that superiors would not care for their families if they died in the line of duty.

The current wave of demonstrations marks some of the largest gatherings since the protest movement began. It echoes historical events in Madagascar; notably, the military base in Soanierana led a mutiny in 2009 during a popular uprising that initially brought Andry Rajoelina to power. Following these recent developments, the newly appointed Minister of the Armed Forces, General Deramasinjaka Manantsoa Rakotoarivelo, urged troops to "remain calm" and prioritize dialogue, emphasizing that the Malagasy army serves as a mediator and the nation's last line of defense.

The government's response to the protests has been met with controversy. On Thursday, several people were injured as security forces used tear gas, rubber bullets, and armored vehicles to disperse protestors. Videos of police violence, including one showing a man severely beaten and left unconscious, circulated widely on social media and were witnessed by reporters. The United Nations responded on Friday, calling on authorities to "desist from unnecessary force and to uphold the rights to free association and peaceful assembly." The UN has stated that at least 22 people were killed in the initial days of the protests, which were spearheaded by a youth-led movement called "Gen Z." President Rajoelina, however, disputed this toll, claiming only "12 confirmed deaths" and asserting that all these individuals were "looters and vandals."

Initially, President Rajoelina adopted a conciliatory approach, sacking his entire government in response to the unrest. However, he has since taken a harder line, appointing a military officer as prime minister on October 6 and selecting the first members of his new cabinet from the armed forces, public security, and armed police. He declared that the country "no longer needs disturbances." Madagascar, one of the world's poorest countries, has a history of frequent popular uprisings since gaining independence in 1960. This includes the 2009 protests that ousted then-president Marc Ravalomanana and saw Rajoelina installed for his first term. Rajoelina was re-elected in 2018 and again in 2023, both times in contested polls boycotted by the opposition.