Kenya is currently grappling with an escalating fuel crisis, marked by sharp price hikes, public outcry, and significant political friction. The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) announced substantial increases in fuel prices for the period between April 15 and May 14, 2026, leading to widespread economic strain across households and industries. This surge has reignited debate over government policies, global market volatility, and the impact on the average citizen's cost of living.

In its latest review, EPRA confirmed that Super Petrol would rise by KSh28.69 per litre and Diesel by an even steeper KSh40.30 per litre, while Kerosene prices remained unchanged. Effective from midnight on April 15, 2026, Super Petrol now retails at KSh206.97, Diesel at KSh206.84, and Kerosene at KSh152.78. These unprecedented levels have left many Kenyans facing financial dread, particularly concerning daily commutes and the general cost of goods.

The primary driver behind these soaring prices is the volatile global energy market, exacerbated by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly conflicts in the Middle East and Iran. Brent crude oil, which traded at a relatively stable $60 to $70 per barrel in early 2026, surged past $100 in March and April, now climbing to approximately $120 per barrel. As an oil-importing nation, Kenya is highly vulnerable to these international fluctuations. EPRA attributed the local spike to a significant increase in the landed cost of imported fuel, with Super Petrol's average landed cost rising by 41.53 percent, Diesel by 68.72 percent, and Kerosene by 105.15 percent between February and March. Additionally, the weakening Kenya shilling, which averaged 130.08 against the US dollar in March, further contributes to higher import costs, along with quadrupling freight charges in some instances.

The crisis has quickly devolved into a political firestorm, with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, now leader of the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), accusing President William Ruto of orchestrating “one of the greatest fuel scandals in the history of independent Kenya.” Issued on April 15, 2026, Gachagua's “biggest heist” allegations center on the government-to-government (G-to-G) fuel deal and the recent price hikes. He claimed that President Ruto would personally earn Ksh 5 for every litre of fuel consumed post-April 14, 2026, totaling approximately Ksh 2.5 billion, and branded the entire energy value chain under the current administration as a “criminal enterprise” designed to benefit handpicked companies linked to senior officials.

In response to the growing uproar, President William Ruto defended his administration and the G-to-G arrangement during a tour of Kisii County. He attributed the price jumps to global instability, particularly the Iran War, stating that without state intervention, prices would have been significantly higher. President Ruto credited the G-to-G deal with preventing the fuel shortages seen in neighboring countries and asserted that it has made Kenya a competitive fuel destination, ensuring supply security. The government has also implemented measures to cushion consumers, including a reduction of Value Added Tax (VAT) on petroleum products from 16 percent to 13 percent and the deployment of KSh6.2 billion from the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) to stabilize pump prices.

Despite these interventions, the economic ripple effects are profoundly felt across the nation. The daily commute has become a source of financial dread, with public transport fares surging across Nairobi's busy estates and long-distance routes. Matatu and taxi-hailing services have adjusted their prices, passing the increased operational costs—driven by fuel being the largest expense for Public Service Vehicles (PSVs)—directly to consumers. Nairobi commuters have seen fare jumps of Ksh 20 to Ksh 30, while long-distance travelers face increases of Ksh 200 to Ksh 500. This has not only strained household budgets but also contributed to higher food prices, as transportation costs for groceries from farms to urban markets have escalated, ultimately reducing families' spending power on other essentials like healthcare and school supplies.

The widespread discontent has led to urgent calls for government intervention from various quarters. Rigathi Gachagua and the “United Opposition” issued a seven-day ultimatum, demanding the government scrap the G-to-G deal and address high taxes, including the 8% VAT and fuel levy, threatening nationwide mass action. Gachagua also called for the resignation of Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, citing political responsibility for the “failed” system. Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro launched a scathing critique, proposing a “Ksh 27 Relief Plan” to immediately slash pump prices. His plan includes reverting VAT on fuel to 8% and eventually exempting fuel products, scrapping the Ksh 7 fuel levy, and utilizing at least Ksh 10 billion from the Fuel Stabilization Fund. Nyoro questioned the disparity between current local prices and those in 2022 when global oil prices were similar but local prices lower, demanding transparency on the G-to-G arrangements and warning of potential “artificial shortages” due to unclear pricing signals.

Transport unions and consumer rights groups have echoed these calls, demanding more aggressive fuel stabilization funds, a comprehensive review of the numerous taxes and levies comprising nearly half the fuel price, and the establishment of a more organized, state-subsidized mass transit system. As global tensions show no signs of immediate cooling, Kenya's economy and its vital "Matatu" culture remain in a precarious position, leaving commuters to balance their budgets on a razor’s edge, awaiting further government action and hoping for stabilization in the global oil market.