IndiGo's Turbulence: Flight Cancellations Lead to Q3 Guidance Cuts and Potential CCI Probe

India's largest airline, IndiGo, is currently under severe scrutiny from regulatory bodies, with the Competition Commission of India (CCI) contemplating a formal inquiry into potential antitrust violations. According to a report by The Economic Times, a senior government official indicated a "strong case" for the CCI to investigate whether IndiGo abused its market dominance, particularly by restricting services or imposing unfair conditions on passengers. This comes as the aviation regulator, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), continues its own probe into the airline's recent operational meltdown. The CCI is actively monitoring the situation and is expected to make a final decision on the inquiry soon.
The root of IndiGo's current crisis lies in the cancellation of over 5,000 flights in a single month, a direct consequence of a significant crew shortage. This shortage arose from the airline's apparent inability to implement new regulations for pilots, leading to an estimated deficit of 65 pilots against its requirement of 2,422. These widespread cancellations left thousands of passengers stranded across the country during what is typically a peak travel season.
In response to the crisis, the DGCA took swift action, issuing a show-cause notice to IndiGo's CEO, Pieter Elbers, and COO, Isidore Porqueras. The notice demanded a response within 24 hours. However, the airline executives requested an extension, informing the DGCA that pinpointing the exact causes of the extensive network collapse would require more time, citing the complex nature of IndiGo's operations and referencing DGCA regulations that permit a 15-day response period for such matters.
The potential CCI investigation would center on Section 4 of the Competition Act, which strictly prohibits dominant enterprises from abusing their position. Such abuses can include imposing unfair or discriminatory conditions on the purchase or sale of goods or services, limiting or restricting production or services, or applying unfair conditions to consumers. The law empowers the antitrust regulator to initiate an inquiry either independently, based on complaints, information from stakeholders, or a referral from government bodies. If a prima facie case of anti-competitive practices is established, the CCI instructs its Director General to commence a formal investigation. It is notable that IndiGo has faced CCI scrutiny for alleged anti-competitive behavior previously, though two cases in 2015 and 2016 – one concerning unfair passenger conditions and another related to predatory recruitment practices – were ultimately dismissed.
Beyond regulatory challenges, IndiGo also announced on Wednesday, 10 December 2025, a revision of its third-quarter (October to December) financial guidance for the financial year 2025-26. The airline indicated a "downward moderation" from its earlier projections on a year-on-year basis, acknowledging the unquantifiable but significant financial impact of the widespread flight cancellations. Specifically, the revised passenger unit guidance for Available Seat Kilometers (ASKs) was set for high single-to early double-digit growth, a stark contrast to its prior projection of high-teens growth. Similarly, the capacity change guidance for Q3 2025-26 was updated to a mid-single-digit downward moderation, differing from earlier estimates of flattish to slight growth during the period.
In the face of these adversities, IndiGo reiterated its commitment to assisting customers and asserted that all its operations consistently comply with relevant Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL) norms and safety regulations. While the airline initially anticipated operations to fully normalize by 10 February 2026, it later provided an update on a Wednesday, stating that normalcy had been restored "earlier than expected." This swift recovery was attributed to the concerted efforts of its 65,000 employees, with CEO Pieter Elbers and his team reportedly leading the front. Vikram Singh Mehta, IndiGo's Chairman and Non-Executive Independent Director, issued an apology for the disruptions and confirmed that on that particular Wednesday, IndiGo operated 1,900 flights across its 138 destinations, with its on-time performance returning to "high levels." Passengers, however, were still advised to check their flight status prior to departure. Furthermore, the airline confirmed that it had processed refunds totaling several hundred crores of rupees.
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