Bulgaria is facing a pivotal moment, preparing for its eighth parliamentary election in five years this Sunday. This vote is critical amidst a backdrop of chronic political instability, with no government having served a full term in half a decade. The country has endured a cycle of caretaker administrations, fragile coalitions, and short-lived alliances, often collapsing under the weight of scandal, leading to a profound erosion of public trust and a chronic decline in voter turnout. Former president Rumen Radev has emerged as a significant new political force, launching his Progressive Bulgaria coalition after the December government resignation. Latest polls indicate his party leads with 33% support, positioning him as a crucial power broker in what is widely expected to be another fragmented parliament.

This prolonged domestic instability unfolds against a complex international landscape. Russia’s war in Ukraine has deepened internal divisions within Bulgarian society and its political class, a fault line that continues to define national discourse. Paradoxically, despite this governmental turmoil, Bulgaria has made significant strides in its European integration, joining Schengen and adopting the Euro. However, delays in implementing necessary reforms have hindered access to vital EU recovery funds, jeopardizing billions and highlighting the high stakes involved in resolving the political deadlock.

The most recent government collapse followed mass protests at the end of 2025, the largest in decades. These demonstrations, initially triggered by a contentious draft budget, rapidly evolved into a broader revolt against the political status quo. Public anger was largely directed at two prominent figures: GERB’s leader and former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, and Delyan Peevski, a controversial political heavyweight sanctioned under the US Magnitsky Act. Critics accused them of operating in tandem, consolidating control over the state and concentrating power, primarily with Peevski, even without his official inclusion in the ruling coalition. The opposition alliance We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) fueled these protests, attempting to regain credibility after having previously governed alongside the very figures they now opposed. Their renewed pledge, “never again,” resonated with the public, driving thousands into the streets and ultimately forcing the government’s resignation. Amidst this peak momentum, Radev, who resigned early in January, launched his political project with the promise to “break the oligarchy,” swiftly rising to the top of the polls within weeks.

Radev’s ascendancy has drawn comparisons to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. His close associate and now candidate, Slavi Vassilev, stated that if Radev were to lead a party, he would be “pro-European, but within a Europe that prioritises its own worldview,” a stance Vassilev believes aligns with Orbán’s policies, though he rejects the notion of either being pro-Russian. Radev’s presidential tenure reveals a record of diverging from Bulgarian governments on the war in Ukraine, opposing military aid to Kyiv, and advocating for dialogue with Moscow. His past remarks, including describing Crimea as legally “Russian,” and a public clash with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2023, have stoked controversy. More recently, Radev has sharply criticised Brussels, accusing the EU of prioritizing ideology over economic pragmatism and becoming a “hostage to its ambition for moral leadership,” arguing that economic decisions should be guided by actual benefit and profit maximization, similar to the United States, China, and Russia. He also unsuccessfully attempted to call a referendum on Euro adoption, maintaining that the public should have been consulted and that the move was premature, even campaigning for politicians who “introduced the euro over the heads of the people” to be punished. Domestically, his message focuses on dismantling an entrenched oligarchic system, often directly implicating Borissov and Peevski.

The Bulgarian elections are unfolding concurrently with significant shifts in the broader European political landscape, particularly in Hungary, where Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule has just ended. Péter Magyar’s pro-European Tisza party secured a landslide victory, winning a supermajority with the power to amend the constitution and potentially dismantle key pillars of Orbán’s “illiberal democracy.” Speaking to the pro-government outlet Patrióta, Orbán described the election as an “emotional rollercoaster,” admitting responsibility for his Fidesz party’s loss and stating the party was in need of a “complete renewal,” with new leadership to be voted on in June. European Union’s competition chief, Teresa Ribera, commented that Orbán’s defeat reflected the limits of anti-EU rhetoric, as Hungarians overwhelmingly opted for closer ties with Europe, calling it a “decisive and very clear” call for change. Ribera also criticized the “heavy-handed US approach” to European politics, which had seen figures like US Vice President JD Vance campaigning for Orbán and the Trump administration actively supporting forces resisting the EU’s “current trajectory,” a strategy Ribera believes is flawed as “this narrative against Europe, against working together, can't win over the medium term.”

In the wake of the Hungarian election, high-stakes talks are underway in Budapest between EU officials and the incoming Hungarian government, marking a critical reset for both sides. The EU is keen for Hungary to lift its veto on a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, while Péter Magyar is scrambling to unlock approximately €17 billion in frozen EU funds, €10 billion of which will expire by the end of August. These funds are contingent on Hungary implementing reforms related to corruption, asylum rights, and academic freedom. Orbán, notably, will not attend his final EU summit, avoiding a potential confrontation over the Ukraine loan. Magyar has signaled a clear intent for “regime change,” calling for the resignation of top judicial and oversight bodies, suspending state-run news coverage he accuses of propaganda, and pledging term limits for prime ministers. He has vowed to pursue those who “plundered, looted, betrayed, indebted and ruined” the country, emphasizing his break from the past by refusing Orbán’s former office.

Orbán’s defeat is also sending ripple effects through the European Parliament, particularly within the far-right Patriots for Europe (PfE) group, which he co-founded in July 2024 with Austria’s Herbert Kickl and Czechia’s Andrej Babiš. This alliance, based on the Vienna manifesto championing stronger national sovereignty, aimed to unite nationalist forces like National Rally, League, and Vox. PfE MEPs are now questioning Orbán’s future involvement, with some fearing disengagement while others believe he will focus more decisively on European politics, “fighting his battles here.” The Fidesz 11-MEP delegation is expected to remain a key force, with Kinga Gál serving as first vice-president. A rally in Milan, titled “No fear. Masters of our own house,” organized by PfE, will be the first major test of the post-Hungarian election mood, focusing on “remigration” of foreigners, and criticizing EU policies on Russian gas imports and environmental regulations. Leaders such as Jordan Bardella, Geert Wilders, and Matteo Salvini are set to attend, amidst preparations for potential public order tensions. An official noted that Orbán’s defeat means “shockwaves in the Council where we have lost one of the two heads of State we had.”

Back in Bulgaria, despite Radev leading the polls, governing alone appears improbable. Campaign rhetoric has created significant hurdles for coalition-building: Radev’s camp has ruled out cooperation with Borissov and Peevski, GERB has distanced itself from Peevski, and PP-DB has rejected any partnership with Borissov. However, Bulgaria’s recent political history suggests that such “red lines” can be flexible. The outcome of this election will not only determine Bulgaria’s domestic trajectory but will also be closely watched across the EU, as the bloc remains concerned about further instability within any of its member states. For voters, the defining question is whether the recent developments in Hungary, including Orbán’s defeat, will inspire greater turnout and a break from apathy, or if Bulgaria might instead drift towards a governance model akin to Orbán’s former style.