The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly revised its forecast for global goods trade growth in the current year, attributing the stronger outlook to an unexpectedly robust first half. This upward adjustment comes despite earlier predictions of a decline, highlighting a resilient and dynamic international trade landscape. The Geneva-based trade body now projects merchandise trade to expand by 2.4% in 2025, a substantial increase from its prior August estimate of 0.9% and a stark reversal from the 0.2% decline anticipated in April.

Several key factors are driving this optimistic revision. Foremost among them is the "robust trade in artificial intelligence-related goods," which includes a surge in demand for semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized that an astounding 42% of global trade growth originated from AI-related products, despite these goods representing only a 15% share of total world trade, underscoring their disproportionate impact.

Another significant contributor to the improved trade performance is the phenomenon of front-loaded imports in the United States. Businesses have been accelerating their procurement of goods to pre-empt potential future tariff hikes or retaliatory measures, particularly in response to the varied tariffs announced by the Trump administration earlier in the year. This proactive purchasing has led to U.S. inventories reaching record dollar values, with North America's imports surging by an annual rate of 13.2%, driven primarily by pharmaceuticals and precious metals, notably gold.

Furthermore, robust trade among developing nations has played a crucial role. The WTO noted a substantial increase in South-South trade—commerce among developing countries—which grew by 8% year-on-year in value terms during the first half of the year. When excluding China from this equation, such trade involving other developing partners experienced an even higher growth rate of approximately 9%. Director-General Okonjo-Iweala highlighted that this solid trade growth among emerging economies, coupled with countries' measured responses to tariff changes, helped ease potential trade setbacks.

Despite these positive developments for 2025, the WTO has tempered its expectations for the following year, lowering its goods trade growth prediction for 2026 to 0.5% from the previously anticipated 1.8%. Meanwhile, the growth in services exports is also projected to slow down, with forecasts of 4.6% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026, compared to a robust 6.8% recorded in 2024. Okonjo-Iweala affirmed that despite "strong headwinds," trade has demonstrated resilience, largely due to the strategic decisions of importers and the burgeoning potential of AI technologies.