Both the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have issued stark warnings regarding the escalating conflict in the Middle East, cautioning that a prolonged war could lead to severe global economic repercussions, including a potential recession and spiraling inflation.

Odile Renaud-Basso, President of the EBRD, speaking to Euronews, emphasized that while the current situation already risks curbing growth and increasing inflation in economies where the EBRD operates, a drawn-out conflict would have “wider and more significant” economic impacts. These impacts are directly tied to the soaring price of energy, driven by factors such as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and potential destruction of key energy sites in Iran and the Gulf. The EBRD estimates that if oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, it could dent growth by 0.4% and increase inflation by approximately 1.5% in its countries of operation. Renaud-Basso warned that if the situation worsens further, with prolonged blocking of the Strait of Hormuz or more destruction of production capacities, oil prices could climb much higher, leading to a “much more serious” economic impact. She also highlighted Europe's challenge in responding, noting its