European Security Bolstered: Germany and Poland Forge New Defense Alliance

Germany and Poland are poised to finalize a new defence agreement, marking a significant step towards strengthening European military cooperation. This development comes at a critical juncture, characterized by heightened tensions with Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and growing uncertainty surrounding the future of US military engagement in Europe.

The relationship between the two neighbouring nations has evolved towards a more pragmatic approach in recent years, influenced by geopolitical shifts and the ascent of a liberal government in Poland in 2023. With the United States considering a partial drawdown of its military presence in Europe, Poland is increasingly keen on ensuring that its major European allies assume a more prominent role in defending the continent’s eastern flank. Concurrently, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is actively seeking partners to aid in the revitalization of the Bundeswehr, Germany's military. After decades of neglect, Germany aims to build the strongest conventional army on NATO’s European side, positioning itself as a central pillar of European defence in the years to come.

Poland's strategic importance as a logistics hub for Ukraine, coupled with its robust and growing economy and substantial investments in defence, has solidified its position as an indispensable partner for Germany and other core European nations. Chancellor Merz underscored this mutual interest, stating in Berlin after a December meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, "We Germans need a strong Poland as an equal partner. This is in our fundamental interest."

The forthcoming defence agreement is expected to outline specific plans for safeguarding the Baltic Sea region, detailing cooperation in areas such as military mobility and infrastructure, cybersecurity, and the development and application of new technologies. Both countries are inextricably linked by NATO’s defence plans, which assign Germany a crucial role in the defence of the Baltic region, in concert with Poland and other Central and Eastern European nations. Justyna Gotkowska, deputy director of the Warsaw-based think tank Center for Eastern Studies, emphasized this interdependence, stating, “Germany is largely responsible for the defence of the Baltic states and without cooperation with Poland, that will not happen.” The Baltic countries are frequently identified as the most probable target for a future Russian attack on NATO territory, should hostilities extend beyond Ukraine.

While the defence agreement is anticipated to reaffirm mutual security obligations stipulated in NATO and European Union treaties, to which both nations are signatories, it differs significantly from bilateral treaties each country has previously signed with France and the United Kingdom. Unlike those pacts, which include political mutual defence declarations, the Polish-German agreement is inter-ministerial, focusing primarily on the practical dimensions of military cooperation. When questioned by Polish media about the absence of a similar political treaty with Germany, Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski indicated that President Karol Nawrocki, who assumed office with the support of the national-conservative Law and Justice party, would never consent to such an agreement, asserting, “Hell would break loose here” if a German-Polish treaty of that nature were to be signed.

Despite Poland's increasing prominence in Europe's security architecture, Germany has historically preferred to make major decisions concerning issues like Ukraine or Iran in consultation only with key Western European allies, namely France and the UK, often sidelining Warsaw. A recent instance of this occurred on June 7, when the three Western European countries hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in London to discuss their potential roles in future peace negotiations with Russia. At a press conference in Warsaw following the London meeting, Prime Minister Tusk voiced his grievances to Merz, asserting that Poland should be an integral part of discussions concerning the future of Ukraine and the broader region. Tusk firmly declared, “Any arrangements made without our participation will not be respected or binding for us.”