The upcoming Manchester derby finds both Manchester United and Manchester City in a state of flux, prompting questions about their current trajectories and who might be closer to a turnaround. For Manchester United, manager Ruben Amorim, despite planning to remain, admitted uncertainty after a rocky start. A last-second penalty win over Burnley, a Carabao Cup shootout loss to fourth-tier Grimsby Town, an opening week defeat to Arsenal, and a draw with Fulham have characterized his early tenure. Amidst this, €76.5-million signing Benjamin Sesko is yet to start a Premier League game.

Historically, Manchester United's performance, as measured by a 10-month points-per-game average, has plummeted to its lowest point since the Premier League began. Following Sir Alex Ferguson's illustrious tenure, which included Champions League and Premier League titles, the club experienced a decline under successive managers like David Moyes, Louis van Gaal, Jose Mourinho, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, and Erik ten Hag. Amorim's arrival has not yet halted this downward trend.

However, an analysis of United's underlying statistics offers a glimmer of hope. Through three matches, they have attempted 58 shots, 14 more than any other team in the league, and generated the most expected goals. Despite this offensive output, they have converted these opportunities into just four actual goals, tying them with teams like West Ham and Burnley. This finishing slump, despite new signings Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo who previously outperformed their expected goals, is seen by some as a variance that is likely to normalize. While not title contenders, their attack already appears improved from last season's 44-goal tally, and they've climbed six spots from their 15th-place finish.

Ahead of the derby, Manchester United faces significant injury concerns, with key players Matheus Cunha (hamstring), Mason Mount (hamstring), and Diogo Dalot (muscle discomfort) all ruled out. These players were starters in the recent victory against Burnley. Potential replacements include Benjamin Sesko as a central striker, Patrick Dorgu at left wing-back, and Kobbie Mainoo in midfield. In goal, Altay Bayindir will retain his starting position despite recent errors, with new £18.1m signing Senne Lammens providing future potential. Former number one Andre Onana has departed on loan to Trabzonspor, a move attributed to the immense pressure and lack of confidence experienced at Old Trafford.

Manchester City, surprisingly, also finds itself in a challenging period. After a dominant run under Pep Guardiola, including three consecutive Premier League titles from 2022 to 2024, their current 10-month points average is the lowest since Guardiola's inaugural season. Last season, City exhibited defensive vulnerabilities, allowing 1.2 goals per game and 20 touches inside their own penalty area – both significantly higher marks than in the preceding seven seasons. New arrivals like Rayan Cherki and Tijjani Reijnders are strong in possession but less effective without the ball, and Rayan Aït-Nouri's arrival doesn't address their primary defensive issues.

Through three matches this season, City has allowed 1.3 goals and 1.3 expected goals per game, along with 22 touches in their penalty area, despite facing a relatively easy schedule (opponents finished 8th, 16th, and 17th last season). The return of reigning Ballon d'Or winner Rodri was expected to solve their problems, but Rodri himself has downplayed his impact. Guardiola, who has a history of solving tactical challenges, has yet to find a fix for these defensive woes that emerged a year ago. Betting markets now place City's title odds in a distant third, closer to Chelsea than to top contenders Liverpool and Arsenal.

In terms of squad news for City, Kalvin Phillips, previously exiled by Guardiola, has been recalled to the squad for the derby, potentially making his first appearance for the club in 21 months. His past loan spells at Ipswich and West Ham were unsuccessful. The club also saw changes in their goalkeeper department, with Italy international Gianluigi Donnarumma joining from Paris St-Germain, James Trafford and Marcus Bettinelli signed in the summer, and long-time number one Ederson sold to Fenerbahce. Guardiola stated he wanted to